College Football Upset Picks for Week 5 (Bet Mississippi State to Upset Alabama)

We were close to cashing in on two of our three upset picks last week, but we had to settle for one, correctly picking the Iowa Hawkeyes to take down the Michigan Wolverines in a Big Ten showdown.

We move on to Week 5, and as teams across the country get into the meat of their conference schedules, we have plenty of opportunities for potential upsets. Let's dive into three of my favorites for Saturday's slate.

College Football Week 5 Upset Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Mississippi State +185 vs. Alabama
Auburn +230 vs. Tennessee
Kentucky +125 vs. South Carolina

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction

I've been all in on Mississippi State this season, so it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is. The Bulldogs rank 19th in the country in adjusted EPA per play this season, along with a net success rate of +7.8%. Alabama is a great team too, but Mississippi State has the X-factor, quarterback Kamario Taylor, who I believe is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate.

I think Mississippi State is going to get one of its biggest wins in program history.

Pick: Mississippi State +185

Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction

When looking at some advanced metrics, there's not much difference between these two teams. They rank 37th and 38th in adjusted net EPA per play, and Auburn actually has the advantage in net success rate, +4.8% compared to Tennessee at +1.7%.

It's also important to note that Tennessee loves to run the football, ranking in the top 30 in run-play percentage. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 25th in opponent yards per carry (3.1) and 33rd in opponent rush success rate.

If you want a bit more of a bold call, consider betting the Tigers to beat the Vols at Rocky Top.

Pick: Auburn +230

Kentucky vs. South Carolina Prediction

Kentucky's numbers have overall been better this season, including ranking 32nd in net adjusted EPA per play, above the Gamecocks, who come in at 40th in that metric.

One thing to keep in mind is Kentucky runs the ball at a high rate compared to the rest of the country, and South Carolina has struggled to stop the run this season, giving up 4.0 yards per carry and ranking 69th in opponent rush EPA.

I understand South Carolina is at home, but if you're going to give me the better team at plus-money on the moneyline, I'm going to take it.

Pick: Kentucky +125

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