Argentina vs. Egypt Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 16

Lionel Messi and Argentina are back in the Round of 16 for the fifth World Cup in a row, and they’re looking to continue their title defense in a matchup with Egypt on Tuesday afternoon.

Argentina escaped Cape Verde in the Round of 32, and it’s set as a massive favorite in this match even though Egypt has been on a roll in this World Cup. Argentina needed goals in the 92nd and 111th minute against Cape Verde, yet is -650 to advance and -265 to win without extra time.

Egypt advanced to the Round of 16 in penalty kicks against Australia, and it has two wins and two draws so far in the 2026 World Cup.

This is the first time since 1934 that Egypt is in the Round of 16, and Mohamed Salah is hoping to lead his team to one of the bigger upset wins in this tournament.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, each team’s World Cup results and my prediction for this Round of 16 match.

Argentina vs. Egypt Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Advance

Argentina: -650
Egypt: +450

3-Way Moneyline

Argentina: -265
Egypt: +800
Draw: +360

Total

2.5 (Over +100/Under -125)

Argentina vs. Egypt How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 7
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Atlanta Stadium
How to Watch (TV): FOX, FOX One, Telemundo
Argentina record: 4-0-0
Egypt record: 2-2-0

Argentina vs. Egypt History and Tournament Results

Argentina and Egypt have faced two times in international play, with Argentina taking the last meeting (back in 2008) by a score of 2-0. The other match (back in 2003) was a 1-1 draw. There isn’t much to take away from those matches since they were so long ago.

Argentina

Argentina has not lost in the 2026 World Cup, knocking off Algeria, Austria and Jordan in the Group Stage, posting a plus-seven goal differential (8-1) in those games. Things tightened up quite a bit in the Round of 32, as Argentina nearly lost to Cape Verde before a Messi corner led to an own goal in the 111th minute.

Argentina is a perfect 10-0 in its last 10 international matches, outscoring opponents 31-4 over that stretch.

Egypt

Egypt has three wins, five draws and two losses in its last 10 international matches, picking up two wins and two draws in the 2026 World Cup.

Egypt advanced to the Round of 16 with a win in PK’s against Australia, and it has been tied at the end of the regulation three times in four matches. Egypt tied Belgium, beat New Zealand and tied Iran in the Group Stage.

A win on Tuesday would push Egypt into the quarterfinals for the first time ever in the World Cup.

Argentina vs. Egypt Best Prop Bet

Lionel Messi 3+ Shots on Goal (+110)

Messi has seven goals in the World Cup, and he’s scored in every single game for the defending champs. So, it makes sense that he’s -170 to find the back of the net on Tuesday, even though Egypt hasn’t allowed more than one goal in any match during the World Cup.

I’m actually going to take Messi’s shots on goal prop as my favorite play in this game, as he’s recorded four, four, one and six goals in this tournament. Messi only recorded one shot in a game where he was a sub – after Argentina had already clinched a spot in the Round of 32 – but as a starter he’s recorded at least four shots on goal and 22 total shots in those three games.

This is a pretty favorable price for Messi, who is extremely involved in the offense, recording 84 touches in the win over Cape Verde.

Argentina vs. Egypt Prediction and Best Bet

Argentina combined for five goals in the Round of 32 against Cape Verde, though three of those came after the 90th minute. Still, Messi and Co. cleared this total twice during the Group Stage, and they’ve scored a whopping 31 times over their last 10 international matches.

Now, Argentina has only given up four goals during that stretch, but Egypt is a tough test with Salah leading the way. Egypt has scored six times in the World Cup, but the team’s defense may be the bigger concern in this match.

Through four World Cup matches, Egypt is allowing 1.48 expected goals per game, and that number is right in line with its last 10 international matches (1.47 expected goals allowed per game).

Argentina is averaging 1.73 expected goals per game during that 10-match stretch, and it should be able to get on the board at least once against Egypt, which has allowed at least one goal in every match at the World Cup.

I’ll take the OVER at plus money since Argentina has scored two or more goals in every match in the 2026 World Cup, including three games where it ended up with three goals.

Pick: OVER 2.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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