Astros vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 10

An exciting series finale is set for Thursday afternoon,as the Houston Astros (first in the AL West) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (No. 1 wild card in the NL).

These two teams have played a pair of high-scoring games to begin the week, combining for 11 runs on Tuesday and 18 runs on Wednesday – even though that matchup featured a strong pitching matchup.

Will we see more offensive fireworks on Thursday?

Oddsmakers have the total set at 8.5 with Zack Wheeler (3.23 ERA) on the mound against Houston’s Cristian Javier (5.98 ERA). The Phillies are heavily favored to take the rubber match in this three-game set, and they’ve made up some more ground in the NL East.

Philly is just three games back of the Atlanta Braves in the division, and a win on Thursday could cut into that number even further.

Let’s break down the odds, a player prop, the pitching matchup and my pick for this matchup between two potential playoff teams on Sept. 10.

Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Astros +1.5 (-132)
Phillies -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline

Astros: +161
Phillies: -196

Total

8.5 (Over -112/Under -107)

Astros vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Houston: Cristian Javier (2-5, 5.98 ERA)
Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.23 ERA)

Astros vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC 10, NBC Sports Philadelphia, Space City Home Network
Astros record: 74-72
Phillies record: 82-64

Astros vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+194)

In today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run prop picks at SI Betting – I shared why Schwarber is a solid bet to stay hot against Houston:

I’ll preface this pick by saying that I never really love a home run prop at shorter than 2/1 odds – no matter the player.

However, in a limited slate, I’m going to target one of the best home run hitters in MLB on Thursday.

Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber has 44 home runs this season, including four in his last six games. Schwarber is hitting .292 over that stretch, and he has a favorable matchup against Houston’ Cristian Javier (5.98 ERA), who has given up nine homers in 14 appearances in 2026.

Against right-handed pitching, Schwarber has gone deep 30 times in 2026, but he’s also more than capable against a lefty (if Houston puts one in), posting a .930 OPS against southpaws this season.

The Astros’ bullpen has improved as the season has progressed (4.09 ERA), but it has still allowed 78 home runs in 2026.

Schwarber is worth a look as he chases a 50-homer season.

Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Javier has not been great this season, even after leading Houston to a win in his first start this month. He sits in the 15th percentile in expected ERA, and the Astros lost every single one of his outings in August.

Overall, the Astros are just 2-7 in Javier’s starts this season and 2-8 in games where he’s pitched in the first inning. This is a tough matchup against a Phillies lineup with lefty sluggers like Schwarber and Bryce Harper, especially since both staffs have struggled giving up runs in this series.

Wheeler had a rough outing against Seattle late last month, but he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 24 starts in 2026. The veteran right-hander sits in the 88th percentile in expected ERA and and the 86th percentile in expected batting average against.

I’ll trust the Phils at home, where they are eight games over .500 this season, in this series finale.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-196 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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