Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Yankees Slugger)

Thursday’s MLB action features just five games, but that’s not going to hold the SI Betting team back from finding a few interesting home run props.

After all, yours truly is on a heater!

After Cody Bellinger (+494) came through with a home run on Wednesday, there have been three consecutive days with a home run prop hit:

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+389) – Monday

Pete Alonso (+293) – Tuesday

Cody Bellinger (+494) – Wednesday

It’s going to be a lot tougher to keep the streak going with just five games, but there are a few interesting matchups to consider, including the series finale between the Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind these home run picks on Sept. 10.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 10

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+335)

Yankees first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. hit a home run (his 29th of the season) on Wednesday night, and he continues to do a ton of damage against right-handed pitchers.

Garcia is hitting .297 with a .913 OPS and 26 of his 29 homers against righties this season, and he enters Thursday’s game on a bit of a hot streak. The 26-year-old is hitting .329 with five homers over the last four weeks (24 games, 20 starts), and he’s hitting .375 with a homer over the last seven days.

Now, he gets to take on Colorado righty Ryan Feltner, who has given up 19 home runs in 22 appearances this season, posting a 5.91 ERA in the process.

I’d expect another strong offensive showing from this Yankee team, and Garcia is by far their hottest left-handed bat this point in the season. He’s a great target at +335 tonight.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+317)

Atlanta Braves star Matt Olson has a familiar matchup on Thursday night, and it’s one that he’s thrived in throughout his MLB career.

Olson is taking on the Tampa Bay Rays and right-hander Nick Martinez, who has given up 19 home runs in 27 games in 2026, posting a 3.04 ERA. While Martinez has some solid numbers on the surface, his advanced metrics tell a different story.

The right-hander ranks in the 41st percentile in expected ERA, the 11th percentile in expected BAA and just the 18th percentile in ground-ball percentage. So, Olson and the Braves should be able to lift the ball in Thursday’s series finale.

Olson is 6-for-16 (.375) against Martinez in his career with two homers and a 1.224 OPS. This season, Olson is hitting .244 with 23 homers against right-handed pitching, and he’s homered seven times over his last 25 games.

I think he’s a great bet in this matchup on Thursday.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+194)

I’ll preface this pick by saying that I never really love a home run prop at shorter than 2/1 odds – no matter the player.

However, in a limited slate, I’m going to target one of the best home run hitters in MLB on Thursday.

Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber has 44 home runs this season, including four in his last six games. Schwarber is hitting .292 over that stretch, and he has a favorable matchup against Houston’ Cristian Javier (5.98 ERA), who has given up nine homers in 14 appearances in 2026.

Against right-handed pitching, Schwarber has gone deep 30 times in 2026, but he’s also more than capable against a lefty (if Houston puts one in), posting a .930 OPS against southpaws this season.

The Astros’ bullpen has improved as the season has progressed (4.09 ERA), but it has still allowed 78 home runs in 2026.

Schwarber is worth a look as he chases a 50-homer season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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