Astros vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 8

The Philadelphia Phillies are making a serious push for the NL East crown, sitting just four games back of the Atlanta Braves after Monday’s win, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into their series opener with the Houston Astros.

The Astros have a two-game cushion atop the AL West, but they’re just two games over .500 and have lost back-to-back games heading into Tuesday’s matchup. Houston remains the favorite to win the division and make the playoffs, but a lot could change over the final few weeks of the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are now the top wild card team in the National League, jumping the Chicago Cubs with Monday’s win.

Andrew Painter (5.55 ERA) is set to take the mound for the Phillies in this series opener, and he’s really turned his season around since being recalled from Triple-A in late July. The Astros have a young righty of their own on the bump in Hayden Wesneski, who has led the team to a 6-1 record in his seven starts in 2026.

Oddsmakers have set the Phils as favorite at home, but bettors may want to look to the total – specifically in the first five innings – when betting on this matchup.

Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Astros +1.5 (-171)
Phillies -1.5 (+141)

Moneyline

Astros: +120
Phillies: -145

Total

8.5 (Over -117/Under -103)

Astros vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Houston: Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA)
Philadelphia: Andrew Painter (3-8, 5.55 ERA)

Astros vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 8
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): TBS, Space City Home Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Astros record: 73-71
Phillies record: 81-63

Astros vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

Hayden Wesneski OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-135)

This season, Wesneski has only made seven appearances, so a lot of his advanced numbers are hard to rank amongst the rest of the league. Still, he has a walk percentage of 8.9 percent in 2026, which would likely land in the 50th percentile or worse for the season.

The young right-hander has allowed at least two free passes in six of his seven outings, including seven walks over his last three starts.

The Phillies are actually a bottom-10 team in walk rate in 2026, but they should be able to draw two walks against Wesneski if he works past the fifth inning on Tuesday.

Astros vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

In today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – our daily MLB best bets column at SI – I shared why I’m trusting both of these young starters:

The Houston Astros have a two-game lead in the AL West heading into Tuesday’s series opener with the Philadelphia Phillies, which features two young right-handers on the mound.

Andrew Painter (5.55 ERA) gets the ball for the Phils against Houston’s Hayden Wesneski (3.18 ERA), who is making just his eighth appearance of the season. The Astros are 6-1 in Wesneski’s starts, but I’m looking to bet on the total early on in this game.

Painter got off to a rough start in his rookie season for the Phils, leading to the team sending him down to Triple-A. Since returning to the rotation, he’s been lights out, including a seven-inning, two-hit, no-run showing in his last outing against Arizona.

The young righty has a 3.12 ERA in seven starts since being recalled on July 31, allowing three or fewer runs in six of those outings. Painter also has some intriguing advanced metrics, ranking in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 81st percentile in chase percentage.

Meanwhile, Wesneski has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts in 2026, posting a one-hit, seven-inning gem in his last start against the Chicago White Sox. He’s lowered his expected ERA to 3.81 this season over his last few outings.

While the Phillies have a lot of sluggers on their team, they rank 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), 16th in runs scored and 19th in OPS this season.

I’m going to buy both of these young starters in this series opener, especially with the first five innings total all the way up at 4.5.

Pick: First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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