Is Baker Mayfield Playing Tonight? (Injury Update, Betting Impact for Bucs vs. Cowboys in NFL Week 5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb) has been ruled out for Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.

Mayfield did not practice during the week and wasn't expected to play in this game, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that the former No. 1 overall pick could miss anywhere between three and six weeks with the injury.

Schefter: Baker Mayfield (right thumb) expected to miss 3-6 weeks.
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 4, 2026

Losing Mayfield has been a massive blow to the Bucs, as they're already 0-4 and have to start undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for the second game in a row. Daniels threw for 148 yards, one score and two picks in a loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 4.

Even with Mayfield out, the odds for this game have been moving towards Tampa Bay on Thursday night.

DraftKings Sportsbook has dropped the the Bucs down to just 8.5-point underdogs after this game opened with the Cowboys set as 10-point favorites at home. That's certainly an interesting move since the Bucs have yet to cover the spread in a single game in 2026.

This season, Mayfield has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 615 yards, two scores and two interceptions. He's added 11 carries for 65 yards and a score on the ground. It's possible he could return to the lineup sooner rather than later, but the Bucs' odds to win the Super Bowl have already fallen to +15000 after their 0-4 start.

With Mayfield sidelined, here's a look at my favorite prop bet for Daniels in this primetime matchup with Dallas.

Best Buccaneers Prop Bet vs. Cowboys

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalon Daniels OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Daniels is very capable with his legs, and he showed that in Week 4 against the Packers. The former Kansas star carried the ball eight times for 55 yards (6.9 yards per carry). He also had a nine-yard carry in his lone series against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.

The Dallas defense is arguably the worst in the NFL, ranking 32nd in EPA/Play, 32nd in success rate and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

I expect Daniels to use his legs quite often in this matchup, especially since the Bucs deployed a run-heavy attack in Week 4. They may look to design some runs for the rookie quarterback to help him get into the game.

If you're going to bet on the Bucs quarterback to have a decent showing on Thursday, this is the way to do it.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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