Bengals Super Bowl Odds Jump Minimally After Dexter Lawrence Trade

The Bengals traded for Dexter Lawrence, but their 2026 odds didn't improve much. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Bengals made a massive trade swing over the weekend, acquiring All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence from the Giants in exchange for the No. 10 pick in this week’s NFL Draft. 

The only people who weren’t surprised (or possibly even impressed) by the deal were NFL oddsmakers. 

The Bengals opened the year with +2800 odds to win the 2026 Super Bowl over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Today, they’re +2500 at FanDuel. That represents a 0.4% increase in implied probability. The Bengals are still only given a 3.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl. 

Equally telling, they’re still 16th in the odds to win the Super Bowl, tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars…

That says a lot. 

The Bengals are second in the odds to win the AFC North with +190 odds at FD. The Ravens, who have a new head coach for the first time in two decades, are the favorites at -120. The Steelers, also with a new head coach for the first time in a long time, are +600, followed by the hapless Browns at +1800. 

The Bengals are eighth in the odds to win the AFC at +1100. Their win total is set at 9.5 with the OVER a -125 favorite versus the UNDER at +105. 

So they got that going for them, which is nice. 

The Bengals are revamping their defense this offseason. Lawrence will be the linchpin of it all. He’s a two-time second-team All-Pro who generates over three-times more QB pressures than the next-closest player at his position. That will be gladly welcomed for a team that was 21st in the NFL in sack percentage last year and gave up the second-most yards per rush in the NFL and the most overall rushing yards. 

The Bengals also added pass rusher Boye Mafe and safety Bryan Cook in free agency. Expect them to invest even more on defense in this week’s NFL Draft. 

It’s been four years since the Bengals lost a heartbreaker in the Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams and they’ve missed the playoffs the last three seasons. Yes, injuries to Joe Burrow have played a role in it. But with so much turnover in the AFC North, and rumblings of Burrow’s dissatisfaction with all the losing, it’s fair to wonder if this is their last great chance to make a run or if the window is already closed on this team. 

Trading for Lawrence could help open that window. But it’s clear oddsmakers don’t believe it’s more than a crack. 

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