Best Bets Today for July 13: Day 190 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year

We have officially reached the slowest week on the sports calendar with Major League Baseball entering the All-Star Break.

Fortunately, we have the World Cup and the British Open to bet on later in the week, but for tonight, all eyes will be on the Home Run Derby. That's why Day 190 of my challenge of betting $100 every day for a year will feature all four bets on today's All-Star event.

Let's dive into my plays.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 0-1 (-$100)
Year-to-date: 322-354-9 (-$229.55)

July 13 Picks and Best Bets

$30: OVER 117.5 Total Home Runs (-115) via Caesars
$30: Longest Home Run OVER 485.5 Feet (-115) via TheScore Bet
$30: Bryce Harper over Ben Rice Round 1 (-125) via DraftKings
$10: Munetaka Murakami Home Run Derby Winner (+550) via FanDuel

2026 Home Run Derby Picks

Pick: $30 on OVER 117.5 Total Home Runs (-115)

This year's home run rules are different. Instead of it being a timed event, each batter will get 20 "swings" in the first round. The top four of eight will advance to the semifinals, where each batter will get 15 "swings". The final round will also have 15 "swings". This format places less emphasis on who's throwing the ball, as batters can choose not to swing at pitches. I think that's going to lead to a higher rate of home runs than in previous years, as batters will be able to make better swings on better pitches.

There's also a rule that if the batter hits a home run on his last swing, he continues until he misses. Those "bonus" home runs could go a long way for us hitting the OVER on this bet if a better or two get locked in at the end of their swings.

Pick: $30 on Longest Home Run OVER 485.5 Feet (-115)

We have seen a home run of OVER 485.5 feet in six of the past 10 home run derbies, so with this year's version of the event allowing batters to take their time and unload on pitches, I'd be surprised if we don't see one reach at least 486 feet.

Pick: $30 on Bryce Harper over Ben Rice Round 1 (-125)

I wanted to find a way to fade Ben Rice, so I'm going to do so by betting on Bryce Harper to finish with more home runs than him in the first round. While pitching isn't as important as years past, it still plays a role, and Rice is having his father throw for him, which seems to rarely be a good strategy in this event. I favor batters who use coaches who are more used to the bright lights with more recent chemistry with the batter.

Also, Harper will be hitting in front of a hometown crowd, which I'm banking on giving him some added juice in the opening round.

Pick: $10 on Munetaka Murakami Home Run Derby Winner (+550)

My pick to win is going to be Munetaka Murakami. Not only has the 26-year-old shown some significant power this season, but I love that he's getting Luis Sierra to pitch to him. Sierra is a White Sox coach that regularily throws batting practice to Murakami. That should lead the White Sox batter with plenty of confidence tonight.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code offer to get $350 in bonus bets if you bet $5 for seven days. Simply sign up, make a deposit and bet $5. If that first bet wins, you get $250 in bonus bets.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google