Best Bets Today for June 18: Day 165 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year (Picks for U.S. Open and World Cup)

We had a fantastic day betting on Wednesday, going 4-1 for a profit of over $100 while cashing in on the DR Congo to win or draw at +280. That performance brings us back to the green for the year!

Let's keep the good times rolling today. For the first time in a week, we're betting on more than just the World Cup. With the U.S. Open starting today, I'm also going to dabble in a couple of Round 1 wagers.

Let's dive into them.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 4-1 (+$109.60)
Year-to-date: 286-303-7 (+$42.70)

June 18 Picks and Best Bets

$30: Russell Henley -125 vs. Bryson DeChambeau (FanDuel)
$20: Shane Lowry +175 vs. Joaquin Niemann/Alex Smalley (DraftKings)
$30: Czechia vs. South Africa UNDER 2.5 (-140) (BetMGM)
$20: Switzerland -1.5 (+168) vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina (FanDuel)

U.S. Open Round 1 Bets

Pick: $30 on Russell Henley -125 vs. DeChambeau

I'm already betting on Bryson DeChambeau to miss the cut, but I'm going to double-dip and bet on him to lose in a matchup bet with Russell Henley as well:

Shinnecock demands artistry with irons and creativity with wedges. I don't think DeChambeau has either, and his recent history at majors proves he isn't at the top of his game. Meanwhile, Russell Henley feels like a perfect fit for Shinnecock. There are few golfers on the planet whose iron play is as good as Henley's, and he can also get up-and-down from anywhere on the golf course.

Pick: $20 on Shane Lowry +175 vs. Niemann/Smalley

Shane Lowry is my best bet to be leading after the first round, and for the same reasons, I'm going to bet on him to win his 3-ball group against Joaquin Niemann and Alex Smalley.

No golfer in the field gains more strokes with their approach play in the first round of tournaments over the past six months than Shane Lowry. For the opening round, he's paired up with Joaquin Niemann, who continues to struggle at major championships, as well as Alex Smalley, who is coming off a missed cut at The Memorial Tournament. Lowry should have much shorter odds than +175 to win this 3-ball group.

Czechia vs. South Africa Best Bet

Pick: $30 UNDER 2.5 (-140)

Both Czechia and South Africa had two of the worst offensive performances of the opening round. Cape Verde was the only team with a lower expected goals total than South Africa, at -0.46. Czechia's offense wasn't much better, ranking 33rd in expected goals in the opening match at 0.03. If both of those metrics hold up when they face each other this afternoon, we can expect a low-scoring affair.

Switzerland vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina Best Bet

Pick: $20 on Switzerland -1.5 (+168)

Switzerland couldn't get past Qatar in its opening match, but the Swiss had the fifth-highest expected goal differential at +2.05. That tells me the match against Qatar wasn't a sign of bad form, but rather Switzerland falling on the wrong side of some terrible variance.

Bosnia & Herzegovina was on the other side of the coin. They also managed to squeak out a draw against Canada, but they had an expected goal differential of -0.82.

With one team in this match playing better than the score in the first game suggests, and the other side playing worse, I think the water will find its level in this game, and Switzerland will win by at least two goals.

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