Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Yankees Outfielder)

Getting back into the swing of things after a holiday weekend is never easy, and there’s even a shortened slate of games in MLB to start the week.

There are just eight games set for Monday, July 6, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t players to consider betting on to leave the yard.

That includes Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez, who has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB as of late, and he enters Monday’s game with the Washington Nationals hitting .320 with 29 homers. So, he’s always an intriguing target, even if his odds aren’t the best.

Tonight, Alvarez is one of three players to consider to leave the yard, and one of my picks sits at north of 4/1 to homer in a rivalry matchup.

Betting on home runs is a fun way to stay involved in the action, but the SI Betting team always encourages responsible betting with these long-shot plays. After all, they are set at plus money for a reason!

Here’s a full breakdown of tonight’s picks – and their latest odds – starting with Alvarez as he aims to hit his 30th long ball of the season.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, July 6

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+214)

Alvarez has been a terror at the dish all season long, but he’s gotten extremely hot over the last week, hitting .435 with four home runs and a 1.418 OPS across six games.

Now, he takes on a struggling pitching staff in the Washington Nationals, who have veteran Miles Mikolas on the mound on Monday. This season, Mikolas has given up 18 home runs in 18 appearances while posting a 5.44 ERA.

Even if Alvarez doesn’t get to the veteran right-hander, the Nationals’ bullpen has been extremely shaky in 2026, allowing 63 home runs as a unit. The Nats are also 27th in bullpen ERA (5.03) this season.

Alvarez has dominated right-handed pitching this season, homering 21 times while posting a .329 batting average and an OPS north of 1.100. He’s going to have a pretty uninspiring price (+214) most of the season, but it’s hard to pass him up during this recent hot stretch.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+230)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani was one of my picks to go deep on Sunday, but he ended up going 1-for-3 in the Dodgers’ loss to the San Diego Padres.

Now, I’m going back to the well with Ohtani facing the Colorado Rockies and left-hander Kyle Freeland on Monday night.

The four-time league MVP has an .822 OPS and six home runs against southpaws in 2026, and he’s absolutely dominated Freeland in his career. Ohtani is 7-for-13 with a double, two home runs and a 1.677 OPS against Freeland.

This season, Freeland has struggled for the Rockies, allowing 16 homers in as many outings while posting a 7.25 ERA. He’s an easy fade candidate against this elite Dodgers offense.

Trent Grisham to Hit a Home Run (+417)

New York Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham came off the injured list for the team’s weekend series against the Minnesota Twins, and he made an immediate impact.

Grisham was 3-for-9 with four runs scored and his ninth homer of the season during that series, making him an interesting target on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay is starting converted reliever Griffin Jax, who has allowed 11 home runs in 60.0 innings of work this season. Jax has a solid 3.45 ERA, but Grisham took the right-hander deep in their lone head-to-head matchup in their careers.

I don’t mind taking a shot on Grisham on Monday, especially since the Tampa Bay bullpen (4.36 ERA this season) has given up 54 home runs. So, even once Jax exits, Grisham is a threat to hit his 10th long ball in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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