Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, Dodgers Star)

Labor Day weekend is in the rearview, and the stretch run of the Major League Baseball season is going to go quick over the next few weeks, and several star players are looking to make their mark to get their team into the playoffs.

A full 15-game slate means there are a ton of players to consider to hit a home run, including one that hasn't played since May 31.

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge (rib) is set to make his return to the lineup on Tuesday night, and he has a very favorable matchup at home against the Colorado Rockies. Can the three-time league MVP send the New York crowd into a frenzy in his first game back?

He’s one of three players that I’m targeting in today’s edition of Daily Dinger, and I’m looking to build on the momentum from Monday when Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong came through with his 41st home run of the season to cash a +389 prop.

So, here’s a look at the odds and my analysis behind these three long shot plays on Sept. 8.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+242)

Aaron Judge hit 17 home runs in 59 games before he was sidelined for three months due to a stress fracture in his rib, and I expect the Yankees slugger to pick up right where he left off on Tuesday.

New York takes on a Colorado team that has one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB, and right-hander Gabriel Hughes (6.19 ERA) is expected to get the start tonight. Hughes allowed at least one home run in each of his starts in August, and he will have his hands full with Judge, who had a .907 OPS before going down.

This season, 12 of Judge’s 17 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and the Yankees star was hitting much better at home before hitting the injured list, posting a .268 batting average and a .996 OPS.

The Rockies have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in MLB (4.77), so I wouldn't be shocked if Judge puts one out even after Hughes exits on Tuesday. This is a fun prop for the three-time MVP in his first game since May.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+406)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts hit his 18th home run of the season on Monday night, and I’m buying him to stay hot on Tuesday against Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds.

Lodolo has struggled in the 2026 season, posting a 5.08 ERA while allowing 16 home runs in 17 appearances. The southpaw has given up seven long balls since Aug. 1 and has allowed 12 runs over his last three starts.

Betts hasn’t found his All-Star form in the 2026 season, hitting .246 with 18 homers and a .730 OPS, but he’s been hot as of late, batting .360 with a pair of homers in the last week.

Over the last 28 days (24 games), Betts has homered five times while hitting .305 with a ,914 OPS. Even though he’s only 1-for-5 against Lodolo in his career, Betts is worth a look with this prop set at north of 4/1 on Tuesday.

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+293)

Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso has been one of the best offseason additions for any team in 2026, hitting .266 with 33 home runs and an .853 OPS.

Alonso is hitting .333 with eight home runs and a 1.029 OPS over the last four weeks (26 games), and he has a very favorable matchup on Tuesday evening against the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has right-hander Tanner Bibee (4.06 ERA) on the mound, and he’s given up 26 home runs in 29 appearances this season. Alonso has also been great against Bibee in his career, going 3-for-6.

This isn't the best price for a home run prop, but Bibee’s struggles with the long ball make him an ideal fade candidate in this battle between two potential AL wild card teams.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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