Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Padres Star)

Who doesn’t love a little afternoon baseball?

The NFL Draft and NBA Playoffs will dominate the sports world on Thursday night, but Major League Baseball has the day, with six games scheduled before 5 p.m. EST.

One of the most exciting ways to bet on baseball is by taking a home run prop, and I have three players to consider for Thursday’s action.

Betting on home runs isn’t easy, but players are usually set at pretty favorable odds where bettors can land a decent payout if the pick hits. Yesterday, Yordan Alvarez hit his 11th homer of the 2026 season, cashing yet another prop for yours truly in this column.

I’m targeting Aaron Judge as one of my favorite props on Thursday, as he’s begun to turn things around after a slow start to the season.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, April 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Xander Bogaerts to Hit a Home Run (+597)

San Diego Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts isn’t known for his power, which is a big reason why he’s set at +597 to leave the yard on Thursday against the Colorado Rockies.

However, there are a few things working in the four-time All-Star’s favor, especially the fact that Coors Field is one of the most home-run friendly ballparks in the league.

Bogaerts will take on Rockies righty Ryan Feltner, who enters this start with a 6.00 ERA and five home runs allowed in just four appearances this season. Xander is 2-for-5 in limited plate appearances against Feltner, and he’s been hot as of late, homering twice in the last two weeks (11 games) while posting a .333 batting average during that stretch.

On top of that, Bogaerts has hit all three of his homers this season against right-handed pitching, posting a .275/.342/.420 slash line against them. I think he’s worth a look at such a long number on Thursday.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+230)

Judge started the season slow from a batting average perspective, hitting .185 through his first seven games.

He’s since pushed his average up to .241, and the reigning AL MVP has homered nine times already in the 2026 season. Judge has six homers over the last two weeks (13 games), and he’s hitting .276 with five home runs against left-handed pitching.

That’s a good sign for him against Boston Red Sox youngster Payton Tolle, who is making his 2026 debut on Thursday. Tolle allowed five homers in seven appearances (16.1 innings) in 2025, posting a 6.06 ERA.

Judge should tee off in this game, and it’s worth noting that Boston’s bullpen has allowed 14 home runs so far in the 2026 campaign.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+291)

Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani has just five homes so far this season, but I’m buying him against the San Francisco Giants and their ace – Logan Webb – on Thursday.

Ohtani has fared extremely well against Webb in his career, going 8-for-22 with three doubles, two home runs and five walks, posting a .364 batting average and a 1.254 OPS.

Webb doesn’t allow a ton of home runs – he’s only given up two this season – but he’s clearly struggled against Ohtani. It’s very rare to get the NL MVP at nearly 3/1 odds, so I’ll take a shot on him in this series finale on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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