Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Bobby Witt Jr., Pete Alonso, Bryce Harper)

A shorter MLB slate is set for Thursday, and there are six afternoon games to dive into, including a 12:35 p.m. EST star between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles.

Every day, the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run prop bets, as this market is one of the most exciting ways to bet on baseball with the potential of a big payout if you can predict a long ball correctly. Home run bets aren’t easy to hit, but I’m coming off a winner on Wednesday.

After nailing a prop for Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero to go deep against the Colorado Rockies, I’m back with three picks for Thursday’s 11-game slate.

Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witte Jr. headlines these picks, as he has a pretty exciting matchup in his third game back from the injured list.

Let’s dive right into the odds, stats and analysis behind each of these home run bets on Thursday, Aug. 6.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Aug. 6

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+291)

The playoff push is on for the Baltimore Orioles, and they’re looking to complete a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday afternoon. So, why not take one of their top sluggers to go deep?

Pete Alonso has been pretty solid in his first season in Baltimore, hitting .248 with 23 home runs, 71 runs batted in and an .801 OPS. Of Alonso’s 23 home runs in 2026, 18 of them have come against right-handed pitching. Now, he gets to take on a struggling right-hander in L.A.’s Ryan Johnson, who has an ERA over 7.00 this season.

Alonso has really solid splits against righties, hitting .257 with a .851 OPS and a .490 slugging percentage. That sets up well for this matchup against Johnson, who has struggled mightily over the last month.

Overall, the Angels righty has given up 12 home runs in as many appearances this season, including at least one homer in six straight outings. He did toss six innings of one-hit ball against the O’s in June, but Johnson has a 6.75 ERA and seven homers allowed in his six starts since then.

I also like this matchup for Alonso since the Los Angeles bullpen (4.35 ERA) has given up 56 home runs in 2026.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+306)

Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. returned to the lineup this week after missing time with lower back tightness, and he’s hitting .375 over his last two games.

Power hasn’t been Witt’s strong suit in the 2026 season – he has just 13 home runs – but I love his matchup with the Minnesota Twins and right-hander Bailey Ober on Thursday night.

This season, Ober has given up 14 home runs in 16 appearances, and he’s coming off a 2025 campaign where he allowed 30 home runs in 27 starts. Ober ranks in just the 14th percentile in ground-ball percentage this season, so Witt and the Royals should be able to lift the ball quite easily on Thursday night.

The main reason to bet on Witt in this matchup? The three-time All-Star has crushed Ober in his career.

Witt is 12-for-28 against Ober (.429) with a 1.179 OPS. He’s taken him deep once and has five total extra-base hits against him. Now that he’s back from injury, it may be time to bet on Witt to find his power stroke over the home stretch of the regular season.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+287)

Can Bryce Harper do some damage against his former team on Thursday night?

The Philadelphia Phillies star has homered twice over his last six games, and he’s gone deep 24 times overall in the 2026 season. Now, he takes on Washington Nationals right-hander Miles Mikolas, who has given up 26 home runs in 23 appearances this season, posting a 5.67 ERA in the process.

Harper has dominated Mikolas in his career, hitting .333 (8-for-24) with a pair of doubles and a home run. While the Phillies slugger isn’t the same power hitter he was earlier in his career, he’s still elite against right-handed pitching, posting a .282 batting average, 20 homers and a .989 OPS this season.

Washington’s bullpen has also been shaky in 2026, allowing 78 home runs while posting a 4.95 ERA. I think this is an ideal matchup for Harper as he looks to get hot ahead of the postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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