Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target CJ Abrams, Aaron Judge, Manny Machado)

A smaller Major League Baseball slate is set for Thursday, May 7, but there are still a ton of players to consider in the home run prop market.

I’m looking to stay hot after cashing two picks on Wednesday night, including a +610 home run prop for Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ. Betting on home run props can be lucrative when a play like that hits, but they’re also tough to predict each and every night.

Still, the SI Betting team shares our favorite plays every day, and there are two early afternoon games that are worth targeting on Thursday.

Let’s dive into the odds and my analysis behind each of these home run props on May 7.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, May 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+235)

New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is one of the two players that I hit a home run prop for on Wednesday night, so why not go back to the well in the series finale with the Texas Rangers on Thursday afternoon?

The reigning AL MVP hit his 15th homer of the 2026 season on Wednesday night, knocking in the only run the Yankees scored. He’s hitting .381 with three homers over the last week (six games) and .333 with six homers over the last two weeks (13 games).

Judge has completely turned things around after a slow start – by his standards – to the 2026 season.

Now, he takes on MacKenzie Gore, who has given up five home runs in seven starts so far in the 2026 season. Gore has struggled against Judge in his career, as the Yankees star is 3-for-7 with two home runs, six runs batted in and a 1.841 OPS.

When Judge is on a heater, he’s a great bet on a nightly basis in the home run market.

CJ Abrams to Hit a Home Run (+505)

There are a bunch of Washington Nationals players to consider against struggling Minnesota starter Simeon Woods Richards, but CJ Abrams is by far my favorite play.

Abrams has been red hot as of late for the Nationals, and I believe he’s mispriced against Woods Richardson and one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB.

The Twins have the second-worst bullpen ERA this season, allowing 14 home runs in the process, so Abrams should be able to make noise in all of his at-bats on Thursday. The Nationals shortstop has nine home runs already this season (all against right-handed pitching) and he’s hitting .364 with two homers over the last week (six games).

Woods Richardson has only faced Abrams five times in his career, but the Nationals star did homer off of him in those at-bats.

On top of that, the Twins righty has given up eight home runs in seven appearances this season, allowing at least one homer in every game. At +505, Abrams is a steal against any right-handed pitcher since he’s posted a 1.089 OPS against them in 2026.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+429)

San Diego Padres star Manny Machado has gotten off to a slow start this season, hitting .207 with just five homer runs and a .678 OPs, but he’s undervalued on Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore is on the mound for the Cards, and he’s given up eight home runs in seven appearances this season, posting a 4.50 ERA in the process. While Machado has been slumping over the last week (he’s hitting .136) he has been pretty solid against left-handed pitching.

The Padres star is hitting .364 with a 1.098 OPS against lefties, homering once in 22 at-bats. This is a pretty solid matchup against a home-run prone starter and a St. Louis bullpen that is 27th in bullpen ERA (4.87) in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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