Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Elly De La Cruz, Munetaka Murakami, Pirates Slugger)

The second half of the 2026 MLB season is in full swing, and all 30 teams are in action on Tuesday night, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at 6:40 p.m. EST.

As always, I’m eyeing some home run props for Tuesday’s slate, and Monday was one of the best days of the year when it came to this column.

Both Kete Marte and Riley Greene came through to hit homers on Monday night, cashing two of the three props that I gave out. There’s usually a lot of volatility when it comes to betting on home run props, but there are some nights where the stars align nicely with hot hitters taking on struggling starting pitchers.

After a profitable showing on Monday, I’m back with a few more picks for Tuesday night’s action.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Munetaka Murakami to Hit a Home Run (+323)

Chicago White Sox All-Star Munetaka Murakami has 20 home runs in his first season in MLB, and he was even a participant in last week’s Home Run Derby.

Murakami hasn’t homered in four games since the Sox returned from the All-Star break, but he has a pretty solid matchup on Tuesday night against the Texas Rangers and right-handed pitcher Kumar Rocker.

Rocker has a 4.40 ERA across 18 appearances this season, but he’s allowed 10 runs and four home runs in two starts in the month of July. The former first-round pick has allowed 12 home runs overall this season, and his ERA has jumped from 3.54 to 4.40 since June 1.

So, I don’t mind fading him against Murakami, who has been much better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching in 2026.

The All-Star has an impressive .252 batting average and .975 OPS against righties, hitting 16 of his 20 homers against them. At +323, Murakami has some serious value against Texas tonight.

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+368)

Over the last 28 days (22 games), Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz has homered just four times, but I’m buying him to hit his 17th long ball of the 2026 season on Tuesday night.

The Reds are set to take on the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Luis Castillo, who enters this start with a 4.93 ERA and 12 home runs allowed in 18 appearances (15 starts). Castillo has not been his usual All-Star self in 2026, and he allowed three home runs in his final start before the break.

That’s a good sign for De La Cruz, who has a .773 OPS and eight home runs against right-handed pitching this season. The Reds shortstop has been better against left-handed pitching, but he’s been red hot over his last 10 games, hitting .325 with three home runs. Since the break, he’s hitting .375 with one homer in four games.

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+338)

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has cooled off in the month of July, but I think he can get back on track at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.

The Pirates are set to face New York right-hander Will Warren, who has allowed 14 home runs in 19 appearances this season. Warren has a 4.03 ERA, and he’s given up at least one home run in five straight starts, including a three-homer game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

While Lowe has been slumping as of late, he is 4-for-7 with a double and a 1.286 OPS against Warren in his career.

The Pirates slugger is also a much better hitter against right-handed pitching, posting a .256 batting average with 17 of his 21 homers in the 2026 season.

With the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, Lowe is a threat to break out of his slump on Tuesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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