Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Jordan Walker, Francisco Lindor)

It may be early in the 2026 MLB season, but yours truly is off to an insane start when it comes to home run props, especially to begin this week.

The home-run streak all started with Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin going deep on Sunday when he was set at +525 to do so.

Then on Monday, Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood came through to cash a +546 home run prop, and I followed that up by picking Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson to go deep at +610 on Tuesday.

It doesn’t get much better than that!

Now, with a ton of MLB teams set to travel later on Wednesday, there are several afternoon matchups to dive into and bet on.

When it comes to home run props, there are three things that I always look to target:

Pitchers that have traditionally allowed a lot of home runs, especially ones that average about one per start.
Hitters with positive splits vs. a specific pitchers OR against right-handed/left-handed arms
Bullpens with high ERAs.

It’s not a perfect method, but it can make some players stand out – like Henderson on Tuesday – that may be mispriced in this market.

So, let’s make it four days in a row with a winning home run prop!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, April 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+203)

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball to start the 2026 season, and I targeted him earlier this week (though he didn’t go yard) against the Colorado Rockies.

Now, with the Astros playing their series finale with Houston, I think Alvarez is worth one final shot to leave the yard against right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

This season, Lorenzen has gotten shelled, allowing an NL-high 19 hits, including three home runs. He has a 14.73 ERA this season after posting a shaky 10.97 ERA across 10.2 innings of work in Spring Training.

Alvarez has dominated Lorenzen in his career, going 3-for-6 with a double, a homer and a pair of runs batted in. In 2026, Alvarez is hitting .324 and he’s already left the yard four times. He’s worth a look, even at a shorter price, against the struggling Lorenzen this afternoon.

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+461)

Are we finally seeing the breakout season we’ve waited for from St. Louis Cardinals slugger Jordan Walker?

The 23-year-old has four home runs and is hitting .300 so far in the 2026 season, rebounding nicely from a 2025 season where he homered just six times in 111 games. Walker has a 1.014 OPS in the 2026 season, and the former first-round pick could be a solid value bet to stay hot against the Washington Nationals.

Former Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the Nats, and he’s allowed a Major League Baseball-leading five home runs in two starts while posting a 14.46 ERA. These early-season struggles come after Mikolas allowed 29 home runs in 31 starts for St. Louis last season.

On top of that, the Nationals rank 28th in MLB baseball in bullpen ERA (6.39) and their ‘pen has allowed 14 home runs in just 11 games.

Walker may be the best power hitter on the Cardinals’ roster, so getting him at +461 is a pretty solid price against this shaky Washington staff.

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+424)

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor has yet to hit a home run in the 2026 season, but that could change on Wednesday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Lindor is hitting just .167, which has lowered his odds in the home run market to +424 against Arizona righty Ryne Nelson, who has allowed four home runs in two starts in 2026, posting a 5.79 ERA.

In his career against Nelson, Lindor is hitting .400 (4-for-10) with a homer, two triples and three runs batted in. He clearly has seen the ball well against the young righty, and this matchup could be exactly what Lindor needs to break out of his early-season slump.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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