Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Manny Machado, Ben Rice, Freddie Freeman)

All eight teams remaining in the MLB playoffs are in action on Wednesday night, the final time this postseason that we’ll have four games to decide between in the home run market.

There have been a ton of big-time homers and hits in the ALDS and NLDS, and more players have a chance to become postseason heroes with Cleveland, New York, San Diego and Atlanta all facing elimination on Oct. 7.

While pitching in the playoffs is a lot tougher to bet against since starters usually have very short leashes, the home run market also features some better odds. So, who is worth a look on Wednesday?

I’m targeting three players to leave the yard, including a pick for Manny Machado, who has been red hot in five games this postseason.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+492)

Earlier today, I shared this prop for Machado in SI Betting’s preview of Brewers vs. Padres Game 4:

The 2026 regular season wasn’t a great one for Manny Machado, as he hit just .217 with a .711 OPS. The seven-time All-Star did hit 30 home runs, bumping his average up over .230 after the All-Star break.

He’s really come around so far in the postseason, hitting .375 with a 1.211 OPS across five games. Machado has at least one hit in four games, two multi-hit games and a home run (Game 1 of the wild card against Chicago).

Chad Patrick is the only potential Milwaukee starter that Machado even has at-bats against, but I don’t want to base this play off of matchups since both teams will likely lean on their bullpens in a must-win game for San Diego.

In the playoffs, it's important to target a hot bat when looking at home run props, and Machado has that for the Padres with six hits (three extra base hits) in five games. He’s worth a shot at nearly 5/1 against a Brewers pitching staff that isn’t nearly as dangerous when Jacob Misiorowski isn’t on the mound.

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+318)

New York Yankees star Ben Rice has been dominant this postseason, hitting .467 with a 1.889 OPS and four home runs in four games.

He’s been by far the most effective hitter in baseball this postseason, and I love the matchup for him at home against Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Nick Martinez.

During the regular season, Martinez allowed 22 home runs in 31 appearances, and his expected ERA was much higher than his actual ERA. He’s also struggled against Rice in his career.

The Yankees star is 4-for-9 (.444 batting average) with three doubles, two walks and 1.323 OPS against Martinez in his career.

With the short porch at Yankee Stadium, I’ll take a shot on Rice to keep the Yankees’ season alive on Wednesday.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+660)

Freddie Freeman has homered in back-to-back games for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I can't pass him up at this price against Tyler Mahle and the Atlanta Braves.

Mahle allowed 20 home runs in 27 appearances during the regular season, and he’s really struggled against Freeman in his career.

The 10-time All-Star is hitting .421 (8-for-19) with a double, a homer and a 1.132 OPS against Mahle in his career, and he’s clearly found a new gear in the postseason.

After homering just 16 times during the regular season, Freeman seems to have found some power in this series. He’s also playing in a familiar stadium after he spent the beginning of his career in Atlanta.

At +660, this matchup is too enticing to pass up on Wednesday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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