Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for NLDS Game 4

The San Diego Padres aren’t dead yet.

After back-to-back one-run losses in Milwaukee to open the NLDS, the Padres returned the favor on Tuesday night, beating the Brewers 4-3 with starter Michael King getting a six-out save to extend the series.

Mason Miller (paternity list) was unavailable for the game, but both he and Adrian Morejon are expected to be available for Game 4, a major boost to this San Diego pitching staff. The Padres are starting veteran Walker Buehler (4.63 ERA in the regular season) in Game 4, which will be his first postseason appearance since he closed out the New York Yankees in Game 5 of the 2024 World Series.

Meanwhile, Brewers manager Pat Murphy declined to name a starter after Game 3, but he mentioned three potential options, even if Milwaukee ends up using the bullpen for the bulk of Game 4.

"You can look at our roster and see who we've started in these situations," Murphy said. "[Robert] Gasser's made starts for us. Chad Patrick's made starts for us. [Shane] Drohan's made starts for us. After this is over, we're going to sit down. Staff is going to be waiting for me, and we'll sit down, and we'll talk about it."

Oddsmakers have set the Padres as slight favorites in this matchup, and if they win they’ll force a winner-take-all Game 5 on Friday night.

This series has not been short on drama with every game decided by one run, including Milwaukee’s walk-off win in Game 2. Will we get another classic on Wednesday night?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 4 of the NLDS.

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Brewers -1.5 (+166)
Padres +1.5 (-203)

Moneyline

Brewers: -105
Padres: -115

Total

7.5 (Over -103/Under -117)

Brewers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Milwaukee: TBA
San Diego: Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.63 ERA in regular season)

Brewers vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): FS1
Series: Milwaukee leads 2-1

Brewers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+492)

The 2026 regular season wasn’t a great one for Manny Machado, as he hit just .217 with a .711 OPS. The seven-time All-Star did hit 30 home runs, bumping his average up over .230 after the All-Star break.

He’s really come around so far in the postseason, hitting .375 with a 1.211 OPS across five games. Machado has at least one hit in four games, two multi-hit games and a home run (Game 1 of the wild card against Chicago).

Chad Patrick is the only potential Milwaukee starter that Machado even has at-bats against, but I don’t want to base this play off of matchups since both teams will likely lean on their bullpens in a must-win game for San Diego.

In the playoffs, it's important to target a hot bat when looking at home run props, and Machado has that for the Padres with six hits (three extra base hits) in five games. He’s worth a shot at nearly 5/1 against a Brewers pitching staff that isn’t nearly as dangerous when Jacob Misiorowski isn’t on the mound.

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

What a series this has been.

These teams have played three straight one-run games, including a walk-off win for the Brewers in Game 2. All three games have combined for seven or fewer runs, and I’m going back to the well and taking the UNDER in Game 4.

While Buehler is far from the Padres’ best pitcher, he’s been great in his playoff career, posting a 3.04 ERA across 19 outings. He’s also won a World Series, so this moment isn’t too big for the Padres right-hander.

I expect both teams to use their bullpens quite a bit in this game, especially since the Brewers haven’t even announced a starter.

In the playoffs, Milwaukee has a 0.64 bullpen ERA while the Padres have a 1.69 bullpen ERA. These teams were also No. 3 (Milwaukee) and No. 5 (San Diego) in bullpen ERA during the regular season.

These teams were also No. 2 (Milwaukee) and No. 10 (San Diego) in team ERA during the regular season. So, the great pitching in this series isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Milwaukee was the better offense during the regular season, but the uncertainty on the mound has led oddsmakers to favor San Diego at home. I don’t want a part of a side since all three of these games have come down to the wire, so I’ll bet on both managers using their bullpens – with an off day tomorrow – as much as they can to limit the opposition.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-117 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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