Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte, Blue Jays Slugger)

What better way to close out the holiday weekend than rooting for a few home runs?

Every day, the SI Betting team breaks down our favorite home run picks for the MLB slate, and Sunday is no different with teams wrapping up their weekend series. Betting on home runs can be tough, but it’s a fun way to get involved in each game with a small wager, especially since these props are almost always set with odds north of 2/1.

Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani (biceps) was out of the lineup on July 4, but he’s eyeing a Sunday return and is an easy bet to go deep if he’s able to play against the San Diego Padres.

In addition to Ohtani, there’s an Arizona Diamondbacks star that may be undervalued in a major matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Let’s jump right into these home run props for a loaded 15-game slate on July 5.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, July 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+401)

Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte has been a home run machine as of late, going deep five times over the last two weeks while posting a 1.071 OPS. Marte is now up to 17 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s been effective from both sides of the dish, hitting 10 long balls against right-handed pitching and seven against southpaws.

The switch hitter has an intriguing matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers and youngster Brandon Sproat on Sunday, yet oddsmakers have him at north of 4/1 to go deep.

Sproat has given up 14 home runs in 16 appearances this season, posting a 5.28 ERA while ranking in just the 48th percentile in ground-ball rate. Sproat ranks in the 26th percentile or worse in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity against in the 2026 campaign.

I don’t mind betting on Marte to stay hot in this matchup, even though things will get tougher against the Milwaukee bullpen (3.51 ERA this season) later in this game.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+243)

Ohtani appears to be on track to return to the lineup on Sunday night, which would set him up for a favorable matchup against San Diego’s JP Sears.

Sears has struggled in two outings in 2026, allowing four home runs, 13 hits and nine runs, posting a 6.97 ERA.

Ohtani has crushed the young lefty in his career, going 4-for-8 with two doubles and a run batted in. He has yet to take him deep, but the Dodgers star has been heating up, homering seven times over the last four weeks to bring his total to 18 on the season.

With Sears struggling to start his 2026 campaign, I think the Dodgers’ offense (No. 1 in Weighted Runs Created Plus this season) has a big night on Sunday.

Kazuma Okamoto to Hit a Home Run (+447)

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has been one of the few bright spots for the team on offense, homering 19 times while posting a .776 OPs in his first season in MLB.

Okamoto has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, homering 14 times, and he’s homered three times over the last two weeks, posting a .300 batting average in the process.

At +447, Okamoto is undervalued against the Seattle Mariners and right-hander Emerson Hancock, who has given up 12 home runs in 16 outings this season. Hancock has a solid 3.47 ERA, but he ranks in the 45th percentile in ground-ball rate and the 21st percentile or worse in barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity against.

I don’t mind a small bet on Okamoto at this long shot price.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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