Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, George Springer)

The final day before the MLB All-Star break is upon us!

Every team will play this afternoon before getting some much deserved rest next week, with most teams resuming play on Friday – though the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will play on Thursday in a standalone matchup.

With the Home Run Derby set for Monday night, bettors and fans are going to see a ton of long balls in the very near future, and I’m looking to get a head start in today’s edition of Daily Dinger.

That’s right, there are three players that I’m targeting to get the home run festivities going early, including All-Star Shohei Ohtani.

Here’s a look at the odds and analysis behind these home run bets on July 12.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, July 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+413)

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has been limited to just 66 games (64 starts) this season due to injury, and he’s hitting just .218 with nine home runs.

However, Springer has an intriguing matchup on Sunday afternoon against the San Diego Padres and right-hander German Marquez, who has given up eight home runs in eight appearances this season.

Marquez enters this start with a 5.02 ERA, and he’s struggled against Springer in his career, allowing the veteran outfielder to go 4-for-9 against him. While Springer has yet to take Marquez deep, he’s hitting .240 with a home run in six games since returning to action.

I don’t mind this price for the Blue Jays star, especially since seven of his nine homers in 2026 have come against right-handed pitching.

Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+308)

The 2026 season has been a strong one for Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso, as he’s already homered 21 times and has an .825 OPS entering Sunday’s series finale against the Kansas City Royals.

Alonso will take on a former teammate from his time with the New York Mets in right-hander Seth Lugo, who has really struggled with the lone ball since June 1.

Lugo has given up 14 home runs in 18 appearances this season, but 10 of those long balls have come in six starts since the beginning of June. Lugo has allowed two or more home runs in four of those outings.

That makes this a very favorable matchup for the Baltimore offense, and it’s worth noting that Lugo ranks in the 10th percentile in expected ERA and the seventh percentile in expected batting average against in 2026.

He certainly could regress further, and I think he’ll struggle against Alonso, who is hitting .262 with an .888 OPS and 17 homers against right-handed pitching this season.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+202)

Ohtani won’t play in the All-Star Game on Tuesday, but the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar is heating up heading into the break.

The four-time league MVP is hitting .318 with a 1.127 OPS and three homers over the last week of action, and he’s homered seven times over his last 23 games (22 starts).

Now, Ohtani takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks and 23-year-old lefty Mitch Bratt, who threw three innings back in June against the St. Louis Cardinals in his lone appearance of his MLB career.

Ohtani has eight home runs and is batting .271 against left-handed pitching this season, and I suspect he’ll get a crack at the Arizona bullpen (4.07 ERA this season) since Bratt didn’t work deep into his first outing.

With the superstar two-way player heating up over the last week, I think he’s worth a bet to end the first half of the season with a bang.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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