Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Yandy Diaz, Freddie Freeman on Monday)

It doesn't get much better than two playoff baseball games with a trip to the World Series on the line, and that’s what bettors and MLB fans have on Monday night.

Game 2 of the NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers kicks off the action at 5 p.m. EST after Milwaukee took Game 1 on Sunday night.

Then, the ALCS begins after the Cleveland Guardians came back to beat the Chicago White Sox in five games in the ALDS. They’ll hit the road to play the No. 1-seeded Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 at 8 p.m. EST.

There are two intriguing pitching matchups in this series, but in this column we’re focused on the bats.

One of the most exciting ways to bet on baseball – especially postseason – is in the home run prop market. Betting on home runs can be tough, but there are usually some pretty favorable payouts for these props in the postseason.

I’m targeting a pair of veteran sluggers, including Freddie Freeman, who had a big NLDS against Atlanta.

Let’s take a look at the odds and my explanation for both of these home run props on Monday night.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Oct. 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yandy Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+552)

During the ALDS, Yandy Diaz was 3-for-12 against a tough New York pitching staff, and he’s coming off a 22-homer regular season.

The right-hander isn’t a huge power hitter, but he’s a great all-around hitter, posting a .293 batting average with an .805 OPS and a 124 OPS+ in the regular season. He hit eight home runs against left-handed pitching during the regular season, making him an interesting pick against Foster Griffin.

The Cleveland southpaw lasted just over two innings in his first outing of the playoffs, and he allowed 23 home runs during the regular season (31 starts). Griffin was also in just the 18th percentile in expected BAA.

At +552, Diaz is worth a shot at home where he hit .318 with a .920 OPS and 16 of his home runs.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+521)

Another play at north of 5/1?

Freeman picked up a hit in the Game 1 loss to Milwaukee on Sunday, and he’s now reached base with a hit in four of his five games this postseason.

The Dodgers star homered in Games 2 and 3 in the NLDS against Atlanta, and he’s been a clutch playoff performer in his career, which is why he’s won three World Series.

I actually like the matchup for Freeman against Milwaukee’s Logan Henderson, even though the young right-hander has held Freeman hitless in four at-bats.

This season, Freeman hit .307 against right-handed pitchers with 11 of his 16 regular-season home runs. He’s been swinging a hot bat in the postseason, which isn’t something the Dodgers have done as a team (.207 batting average) through five playoff games.

Plus, Henderson is a little vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 14 in his 18 regular-season starts. I’ll take a shot on Freeman at this price in Game 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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