Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, Mariners Star)

Not one, but two of the three plays in yesterday’s Daily Dinger column ended up hitting, the second day in a row with at least one home run prop hit.

Boston’s Roman Anthony (+610) and Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman (+559) cashed a pair of long shot bets for yours truly on Sept. 2 – one of the best days we’ve ever had in this column.

So, why not keep the momentum going on Thursday?

I have yet another prop that is north of +500 for a truncated slate of games on Sept. 3, as well as a pick for AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, who has absolutely dominated Chicago White Sox starter Luis Castillo in his career.

Betting on home run props can be very tough – trust me, every night isn’t like Wednesday’s action – but as Wednesday’s slate showed, there are ways to pick some big winners by finding hot hitters and favorable pitching matchups.

Here’s where I’m leaning for Thursday’s games, including two picks for matchups set to begin this afternoon.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+234)

Alvarez is the AL MVP favorite this season, but he’s cooled off from his torrid pace as of late. The Astros star has homered just one time in the last two weeks, but he has an ideal matchup on Thursday afternoon against the White Sox.

Alvarez is still hitting .317 with 37 homers and a 1.037 OPS, homering 28 times with a .335 batting average against right-handed pitching. Now, he takes on the struggling Castillo, who has given up 23 home runs in 25 appearances this season.

The biggest reason to bet on Alvarez is career history against Castillo.

The Astros star is 11-for-21 (.524 batting average) with a double, four home runs and an OPS of 1.726 against Castillo in his career. There are very few pitchers that Alvarez has been better against, and Castillo is in the midst of one of the worst years of his career.

I’ll back the AL MVP favorite to smack his 38th homer of the year on Thursday afternoon.

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+506)

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer is swinging a hot bat as of late, hitting .311 over his last 24 games (18 starts), .405 over his last 12 games (10 starts) and .455 over the last week (six starts).

The four-time All-Star has two home runs over the last week, pushing his season total to 14 in 100 games. Yet, he’s set at +506 to go deep against the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday afternoon.

Springer has homered off of Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee before, going 2-for-9 with one long ball in limited appearances against him. Bibee has really struggled to limit homers in 2026, allowing 26 in his 28 appearances.

On top of that, he ranks in just the 20th percentile in ground-ball percentage, which means the Jays should be able to lift the ball on Thursday.

Springer hasn’t displayed elite power this season, but he’s been red hot at the dish for several weeks. I think this is a pretty favorable price for the veteran outfielder as the Jays look to take this series finale.

Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+488)

Seattle Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena has improved on what was a solid 2025 season, hitting .272 with 22 home runs in the 2026 campaign for a Seattle team that is on the outside looking of the playoff picture.

The three-time All-Star hit 27 homers last season, but his average was nearly 40 points lower than it is in 2026.

On Thursday, Arozarena gets a crack at the Athletics and righty Jack Perkins, who has given up 18 home runs this season while posting a shaky 6.42 ERA. The Athletics also have the worst bullpen in MLB (5.56 ERA), which has allowed 80 home runs in 2026.

Arozarena has come on with some serious power as of late, hitting eight home runs over his last 25 games and five home runs over the last two weeks. He’s hitting .260 during that two-week stretch, but I’m really eyeing him because of his numbers against Perkins.

In limited at-bats, Arozarena is 2-for-4 against Perkins with both of his hits leaving the yard. Not a bad home-run rate! I think he’s undervalued at nearly 5/1 to hit his 23rd long ball of the season on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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