Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 1)

One game remains in Week 1 of the NFL season, as two contenders in the AFC West go head-to-head on Monday Night Football.

The Denver Broncos and Bo Nix are looking to build on an AFC title game appearance from the 2025 season when they take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes and Nix are both coming off injuries that ended their season in 2025, but both are expected to play in Week 1, as neither has a designation on the final injury report.

Kansas City is favored at home in this matchup, but it dropped two matchups to Denver in 2025, including one with Mahomes in the lineup.

The Broncos are one of two teams that finished in the top 10 in the league in EPA/Play on both offense and defense in the 2025 season, and they may be a little undervalued in the futures market heading into Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs added Kenneth Walker III in free agency and are hoping to bounce back after a down season in 2025 where they failed to make the playoffs.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this matchup, and I’ve rounded up some of our favorites to help bettors get ready for Monday night.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan
Bo Nix OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-113) – Peter Dewey
Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-121) – Peter Dewey
Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+210) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared a pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week:

This is a fascinating game for several reasons. Not only did the Denver Broncos break the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year AFC West reign last season, but the Broncos are now trying to prove that last year was a fluke, and the Chiefs are trying to prove it was. Patrick Mahomes will be back healthy and looking to return to his MVP form. Finally, this is a game between a team that went 11-2 in one-score games a year ago, the best mark in football, and a team that went 1-9 in one-score games, the worst mark in football.

Everything that could have gone the Broncos' way last season, did, while everything that could have gone wrong for the Chiefs went wrong. That's why I'm thinking about more than last year's results. The Chiefs are healthy and the better team from top to bottom. I'll back them as slight home favorites in the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football.

Bo Nix OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-113) – Peter Dewey

Could we see a big game from Bo Nix on Monday?

The Chiefs’ defense was pretty solid against the pass in the 2025 season, ranking 12th in EPA/Pass and eighth in passing yards allowed.

However, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson are both no longer with the team, leaving the Chiefs with a younger look in the secondary in 2026.

I think this could be a tough matchup for this KC defense, and Denver already threw the ball a ton in 2025 with Nix attempting 35 or more passes in 10 of his 17 regular season games, including both against Kansas City.

Sean Payton is going to want to use his plethora of receivers – including newcomer Jaylen Waddle – and Nix is coming off a season where he averaged 36 attempts per game.

Plus, if the Broncos fall behind in this matchup – they are underdogs – they'll likely go to the air a ton in the second half.

Rashee Rice OVER 5.5 Receptions (-121) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City wide receiver Rashee Rice could be in line for a big season in 2026 after he missed time in the 2025 season due to legal issues and injury.

Rice is healthy coming into Week 1 against Denver, a team he had six catches for 38 yards against in a Week 11 loss last season. There’s no doubt that the Denver pass defense is elite with Pat Surtain II leading the way, but Rice has been Mahomes’ go-to target when he has been in the lineup the last few years.

During the 2025 season, Rice had six or more receptions in six of his eight games, drawing 78 targets (nearly 10 a game). He should have a pretty big workload in Week 1, especially since Travis Kelce is no longer the No. 1 option that he used to be.

Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD (+210) – Peter Dewey

Kansas City revamped its secondary in the offseason, trading away McDuffie and letting Watson walk in free agency. So, it may not repeat the top-12 finish in EPA/Pass that it had in 2025.

Denver added star wideout Jaylen Waddle in a trade with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason, he could be a steal in Week 1 at north of 2/1 to score a touchdown.

The Broncos newest receiver should be a key part of this offense from day one, and he’s coming off a six-score season despite some terrible quarterback play in Miami.

Waddle was a surefire 1,000-yard receiver earlier in his career, and he should get a ton of looks in a Denver offense that is one of the most pass-happy attacks in the NFL. I love this number for Waddle on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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