Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Buccaneers vs. Cowboys on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5)

Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season kicks off with an interesting NFC battle, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in search of their first win when they hit the road to play Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

Baker Mayfield (thumb) is sidelined for Thursday’s contest, paving the way for undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels to make his second start of the season. Daniels threw for one score and two picks in a loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off an upset win on the road against the Houston Texans and are back to .500 in the 2026 season. Dallas is in the mix to win the NFC East, especially since the 3-1 New York Giants are without starting quarterback Jaxson Dart for the rest of the regular season and currently are in first place.

Oddsmakers have set the Cowboys as massive favorites on Thursday, as Tampa Bay has one of the worst offenses in the league and is playing a young quarterback with very little NFL experience – or pedigree.

After Prescott had a huge showing against Houston, finding CeeDee Lamb 17 times for well over 100 yards and score, there are some interesting prop angles to take in this game with Dallas expected to roll.

All week long, the SI Betting team has made game picks, player prop selections and anytime touchdown scorer picks for this NFC showdown.

Here’s a few of our favorites, including a player prop for Prescott on Thursday night.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (-108) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan
CeeDee Lamb 6+ Receptions (-167) – Peter Dewey
Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey
Dak Prescott OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (-108) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan

All season long, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his best bets for every NFL game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Bucs to cover in Week 5:

I know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been bad this year, and Jalon Daniels is going to get another start, but I can't lay this many points on this Cowboys team based on how truly awful their defense is. They rank 31st in opponent EPA per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA, and last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.4 yards per snap.

Even when facing a depleted Buccaneers' offense led by an undrafted rookie at quarterback, I have no faith in them being able to hold a big enough lead to cover this spread.

We should also give credit to the Buccaneers' defense, which is fifth in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate while giving up only 5.0 yards per snap this season.

With that big of a discrepancy on the defensive side of the ball, I'll take the points with Tampa Bay.

CeeDee Lamb 6+ Receptions (-167) – Peter Dewey

Lamb had an all-time game in Week 4 against the Houston Texans, catching 17 passes (on 21 targets) for 189 yards and a score.

After finishing with just five catches (on eight targets) for 44 yards and a score in Week 1, Lamb has brought in eight, seven and 17 passes in his last three games.

Prescott has looked his star receiver’s way at least eight times in every game this season, so I don’t mind bringing Lamb’s receptions prop down to just six in Week 5.

Last season, Lamb had 75 catches in 14 games, and he had three straight 100-reception seasons before that. He should remain the focal point of a Dallas offense that is No. 5 in EPA/Pass in 2026.

Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+175) – Peter Dewey

The Buccaneers ran the ball quite a bit in Daniels’ first start, and starting Bucky Irving handled the majority of those carries. That makes him an intriguing touchdown target against this Dallas defense, even though Sean Tucker ran for a score and Kenneth Gainwell caught a touchdown in Week 4.

Irving had 16 carries for 61 yards in the loss, his third game in a row with at least 15 carries. So, the touches should be there for the third-year back, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry in the 2026 season.

This Dallas defense is gettable on the ground, as it ranks 20th in the NFL in EPA/Rush and is allowing 4.8 yards per carry in the 2026 season.

Irving hasn’t scored since Week 1, but he’s played 62.2 percent of the Bucs’ offensive snaps. I think he’s worth a look against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Dak Prescott OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (-113) – Peter Dewey

Can Prescott have another big game in Week 5?

I’m all-in on this Dallas offense (fifth in EPA/Play), and the star quarterback has led the way, making him an MVP candidate this season.

Prescott threw for just 175 yards in Week 1 against the New York Giants in Week 1, but since then he’s easily cleared this total in three straight games.

Week 4 was his best yardage game (335), but Prescott hit at least 276 passing yards Washington (Week 2) and Baltimore (Week 3) as well.

Tampa Bay has actually been decent against the pass, allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards in the NFL this season, but I am not going to fade Dallas at home in a winnable matchup. Prescott averaged 267.8 yards per game last season, and I expect him to be right around that total again in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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