Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 5 Picks for Every Game

Thank Gamblor; we finally had a profitable week for the first time in the 2026 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. We finished the week at 9-6-1 for a profit of +2.62 units, capped off with a moneyline underdog winner on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

We still have a long way to go to get back to the green this season, so let's see if we can take another step in the right direction in Week 5. BYE weeks begin now, so we have just 15 games to bet on, with both the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs taking the week off.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 4: 9-6-1 (+2.62 units)
Season-to-date: 27-35-2 (-8.76 units)

NFL Week 5 Best Bets for Every Game

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction

I know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been bad this year, and Jalon Daniels is going to get another start, but I can't lay this many points on this Cowboys team based on how truly awful their defense is. They rank 31st in opponent EPA per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA, and last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.4 yards per snap.

Even when facing a depleted Buccaneers' offense led by an undrafted rookie at quarterback, I have no faith in them being able to hold a big enough lead to cover this spread.

We should also give credit to the Buccaneers' defense, which is fifth in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate while giving up only 5.0 yards per snap this season.

With that big of a discrepancy on the defensive side of the ball, I'll take the 9.5 points with Tampa Bay.

Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 (-109) via BetRivers

Eagles vs. Jaguars Prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a significant advantage over the rest of the NFL in that they're relatively healthy, which is big for their chances of winning their upcoming games. This Week 5 showdown is against the Philadelphia Eagles, and it's the second game of the NFL London Series.

The Eagles are reportedly planning on waiting until Friday to fly out, a mistake that teams have made in the past that Philadelphia apparently doesn't want to learn from.

The Eagles have some other significant issues occurring as well. Their offense is 28th in the NFL in EPA per play, and their defense is 25th. They are, from an advanced metrics standpoint, one of the worst teams in the NFL to begin the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are the only team to rank in the top seven in the league in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play.

I'll lay the points with Jacksonville.

Pick: Jaguars -6.5 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Bears vs. Packers Prediction

It's looking like Caleb Williams will miss at least one more week, so I'm going to go against the Bears at least one more time. I was vocal about believing that the Bears would regress this season, but they've played better than I expected. With that being said, I think there is some level of buy-low opportunity on this Packers team. Their offensive line is banged up, but they've been amongst the unluckiest teams on both side of the ball to start the season, according to RBSDM.com.

No matter how good the Bears' backup quarterback has looked, I can't lay points on a team playing a backup quarterback in a road game against an underperforming but competent divisional rival. Give me the points with the Packers.

Pick: Packers +2.5 (+100) via PointsBet

Colts vs. Steelers Prediction

The Colts are in an extremely tough spot in this game. They're coming off an international game and now have to play on the road against a team that's coming off a mini-bye, as the Steelers haven't played since last Thursday Night Football.

I also have some significant concerns about this Colts team. They enter this week ranking dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.7. To be fair, they have had a relatively tough schedule to begin the season, with games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans, but their defense has been bad throughout, ranking 22nd in opponent EPA per play.

I don't think the Colts are good enough to overcome the travel and rest discrepancy between these two teams.

Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Giants vs. Commanders Prediction

With Jayden Daniels likely back with the Commanders, their offense should see a significant boost, but based on how their defense has played to begin the season, I'm not ready to lay the points on them against this Giants team. Instead, I'm going to bet the OVER on what's a surprisingly low total of 43.

These two defenses rank 22nd and 26th in opponent success rate.

Jameis Winston looked like his vintage self in Week 4, which is great for OVER bets. He's either going to throw touchdowns or interceptions, but either will likely lead to points. The total cruised over in their game against the Cardinals.

Pick: OVER 43 (-114) via BetRivers

Texans vs. Titans Prediction

The Texans' defense is an interesting case study to begin the season. They're 26th in the league in opponent EPA per play but fifth in opponent success rate. That tells me that they've been great on a play-to-play basis, but they have been susceptible to explosive plays. It's good news for them that they now get to face one of the least explosive teams in the NFL, the Titans.

Tennessee has improved this season defensively, but Cam Ward has been terrible to begin the season, and I don't think he's going to fare well against this Texans defense.

I'll lay the points on Houston.

Pick: Texans -6.5 (-117) via BetRivers

Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction

There's no denying the Raiders have earned their record to begin their season; their metrics have been strong, and they're 3-1 on the year, but with that being said, I think we can sell high on them after they've covered the spread each week. Before the season began, the Patriots were 8.5-point favorites in this game on the lookahead line. Now, the line is down to 3.5. Are we putting enough stock into a four-game sample size to move the line five whole points? I'm not quite convinced of that.

The Patriots had some poor luck in the first few weeks, and despite the slow start, their defense has still played well, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. That's above the Raiders' defense in that metric, which comes in at 11th.

A major concern I have about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means that, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward? I certainly don't.

I'll lay the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Vikings vs. Saints Prediction

As bad as the Saints' defense looked on Monday Night Football, the Vikings simply can't continue to find ways to win football games. Their offense is truly horrific, ranking 28th in EPA per play and dead last in the NFL in success rate. Their defense has won them games, but that can only take a team so far. Now, they have to hit the road to take on a Saints team that can at least move the ball through the air offensively.

The wrong team is favored in this game.

Pick: Saints +110 via DraftKings

Bengals vs. Dolphins Prediction

The Bengals have looked completely average to begin the season, but we can forgive them based on their schedule. Three of their first four opponents have come against playoff teams from a season ago, and their fourth was a Buccaneers team that entered the season as favorites to win their division. Now, they finally have a bad team to beat up on, and even if they don't have both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins back in the lineup, I have confidence in their ability to win and cover in this spot.

It's worth noting that the Cincinnati defense has looked improved this season compared to recent years, ranking in the top half of the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and success rate.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking worse every week. They're in the bottom five of virtually every single metric on both sides of the ball. It's hard to imagine them hanging with this Bengals team.

Pick: Bengals -7.5 (+100) via Bet99

Browns vs. Jets Prediction

I think the line is set right for this game. Very little separates these two teams, and they rank next to each other in almost every metric you can find. That's why the Jets deserve to be around 1.5-point favorites when you consider their home-field advantage.

With little to no value on the spread, I'm going to look to the total and bet the OVER. A total in the 30s belongs to games between teams that have bad offenses and great defenses. That's not the case here. Both teams are average to below-average on both sides of the ball, so with it being such a low total, I'll take a chance on the OVER.

Pick: OVER 39.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction

It's an ugly bet to make, but I'm going to back the Chargers to cover the spread in this game. The Broncos have some injury issues heading into this week. We don't yet know who will play and who won't, but Pat Surtain II is doubtful with an ankle injury, Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury, and Pat Bryant is also doubtful with an ankle injury. That's two starting corners and an important piece on offense that could miss this road game, which will hurt them more than you think.

The Chargers are certainly deserving of criticism this season, but people need to wake up to Bo Nix. I'm convinced he's not a good quarterback. He's 23rd in adjusted EPA per play and 27th in completion percentage over expected. This team is now 26th in Net Yards per Play at -0.7, below the Chargers, who come in at 17th in that metric at -0.3.

With the Chargers getting 3.5 points on their home field, I'll back Los Angeles to cover the spread for the first time this season.

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110) via DraftKings

49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction

In my opinion, the San Francisco 49ers have been the best team in the NFL through the first four weeks. They lead the league in DVOA, Net Yards per Play, EPA per Play, and success rate. To be fair, two of their four games have been against the Dolphins and the Cardinals, and now they have some injury issues to deal with heading into Week 5, in a tough game in Seattle.

With that being said, if you're going to give me more than a field goal's worth of points on who I think is the best team in the NFL, I'm going to take that bet 10 times out of 10.

The Seahawks continue to be exactly the team they've been dating back to last season, but it's too many points for me to lay in a game that I think is a true coin flip.

Pick: 49ers +3.5 (-125) via BetRivers

Lions vs. Cardinals Prediction

I don't know if there's a total in a Lions game that's high enough for me to not bet the OVER at this point of the season. Their offense is sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, but their defense is last in opponent EPA per play and 29th in opponent success rate.

The Cardinals are in a similar situation, but not quite as exaggerated. Their offense is in the top half of the NFL in most offensive metrics, but in the bottom half of most defensive metrics, which makes sense when you consider the makeup of their roster.

Let's sit back and root for points in this NFC showdown.

Pick: OVER 53.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction

Maybe this is a sell-high spot on the Falcons, or maybe they truly are a completely different team with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. One thing we know for certain is that their defense has been one of the best units in the NFL to begin the season, so I'm ready to buy-in on this team and bet on them to once again pull off the upset on prime time.

The Ravens also may not have Lamar Jackson for this game, as his status is still up in the air as of writing this article. If he can't go for Baltimore, don't be surprised if Atlanta closes as the betting favorite ahead of kickoff on Sunday night. Jump on the Falcons as underdogs while you can.

Pick: Falcons +130 via BetMGM

Bills vs. Rams Prediction

It's not being talked about enough how bad the Bills' defense has been this season. It led to them losing in Week 4 to the Patriots, and now they have to face the reigning MVP and Puka Nacua, who's going to start hitting his stride. Buffalo now ranks 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate. The only defenses that have been worse are the Lions' and Cowboys'.

Meanwhile, the Rams defense is third in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate. They're also a top-10 defense in stopping the run, a huge key in slowing down the Bills' offense.

If Buffalo can't rack up the points in this game, the Rams are going to leave them in the dust against this defense. I'm not afraid to lay the points on Los Angeles.

Pick: Rams -2.5 (-118) via BetMGM

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