Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Falcons vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 3)

Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season begins with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay is favored in its home opener, but it hasn’t looked like a playoff team through two weeks, blowing a big lead to Minnesota in Week 1 before going to overtime in a win over the New York Jets in Week 2.

This could be a bounce-back spot for Jordan Love and Co. at home, as the Pack are favored by six points against the winless Falcons. Atlanta is set to start Michael Penix Jr. in this matchup after Cooper Rush struggled as the starter in Weeks 1 and 2.

Atlanta had the worst EPA/Play on offense in the first two weeks of the season, and it desperately needs a spark if it wants to compete in the NFC South in 2026. Can it find something on the road against a short-handed Packers team?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making game picks, player props and more for this NFC showdown on Thursday night.

I’ve decided to compile some of our favorites all into one story to give bettors a one-stop shop for Falcons vs. Packers in Week 3.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Falcons vs. Packers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-112) vs. Green Bay Packers – Iain MacMillan
Christian Watson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-122) – Peter Dewey
Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-160) – Peter Dewey

Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-112) vs. Green Bay Packers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week:

The Falcons have announced that Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first start of the season on Thursday night, saving football fans from having to watch Cooper Rush on prime-time football and potentially saving the Falcons' season.

We need to throw the Falcons' first two offensive performances of the season out the window. Their quarterback play wasn't just bad; it kept them from being able to do anything through the air, and when they tried, they turned the ball over. What we can look at is their defense, which ranks ninth in Opponent EPA per Play and fourth in Opponent Success Rate so far, despite the injuries they're battling.

Meanwhile, the Packers may not be as good as I thought they'd be heading into the season. Their defense has been average, and their offense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate, which is even worse than the Falcons' offense, which ranks 31st.

Bijan Robinson Anytime TD (-160) – Peter Dewey

The Atlanta offense has struggled to open the 2026 season, but the return of Penix should give Atlanta a much higher floor.

That’s good news for Bijan Robinson, who found the end zone in Week 1 and has handled 48 touches over the first two weeks of the season. This isn’t a fun price to lay with the Falcons running back, but he’s the most-likely player to hit pay dirt on Thursday because of his weekly workload.

Robinson had 83 rushing yards, 90 receiving yards and a score in Week 1 before totaling just 81 total yards in Week 2. He should see a few more looks with the Falcons expected to hang around in this matchup much more than they did against Carolina.

Last season, Robinson found the end zone 11 times, and he scored 15 times in 2024. He’s worth a look against a Green Bay defense that has given 56 points over two weeks this season.

Christian Watson OVER 4.5 Receptions (-122) – Peter Dewey

Christian Watson has emerged as the clear No. 1 target in this passing game through two weeks, catching 10 of his 19 targets for 188 yards and three scores.

Watson has six catches (on eight targets) and four grabs (on 11 targets) to open 2026, and he could see an even bigger role after Jayden Reed (neck) was injured in Week 2.

Jordan Love hasn’t exactly been efficient throwing the ball this season,completing less than 60 percent of his throws, but Watson played nearly 90 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 2 and has one more target than Matthew Golden through two games.

I think this prop is a pretty solid value against an Atlanta defense that allowed five catches for 101 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and eight catches for 66 yards to Jalen Coker in Week 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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