Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 3 Picks for Every Game

The 2026 edition of the Road to 272 Bets hasn't gotten off to the best start. The good news is we improved on our Week 1 results; the bad news is we still finished in the red.

Despite cashing in on the Vikings to upset the Bears, we still finished with a 7-9 record for -1.45 units. That brings my season-to-date record to 13-19 for -5.88 units.

We move on to Week 3 in search of a profitable week to get us back on track. There's still plenty of football left to be played and bet on.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, in case you missed last week's article, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Let's have a big week. 32 bets down, 240 bets to go.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets for Every Game

Falcons vs. Packers Prediction

The Falcons have announced that Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first start of the season on Thursday night, saving football fans from having to watch Cooper Rush on prime-time football and potentially saving the Falcons' season.

We need to throw the Falcons' first two offensive performances of the season out the window. Their quarterback play wasn't just bad; it kept them from being able to do anything through the air, and when they tried, they turned the ball over. What we can look at is their defense, which ranks ninth in Opponent EPA per Play and fourth in Opponent Success Rate so far, despite the injuries they're battling.

Meanwhile, the Packers may not be as good as I thought they'd be heading into the season. Their defense has been average, and their offense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate, which is even worse than the Falcons' offense, which ranks 31st.

With Penix back, I'll gladly take the 6.5 points on Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons +6.5 (-108) via BetMGM

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction

The Bengals may be 2-0, but I haven't been impressed with them, especially offensively, to begin the season. They're 22nd in yards per play, 20th in EPA per play, and 24th in success rate. Then there's the Steelers' offense, which is even worse. They have scored a combined 16 offensive points in two games against the Falcons and Patriots. They rank in the bottom five in virtually every single offensive metric. Meanwhile, their defense has been fantastic, ranking second in opponent EPA and ninth in opponent success rate.

All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 42.5 (-107) via Caesars

Titans vs. Giants Prediction

It's hard to imagine laying points on this Giants team if Jaxson Dart isn't able to suit up. Their true colors showed on Monday night against the Rams, showcasing plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, none of which are bigger than Jameis Winston, who had all the bad traits of himself in his prime without any of the good traits.

I'll bet the Titans to pull off the upset and hope their strong showing against the Eagles last week is a sign of good things to come for this team.

Pick: Titans +162 via FanDuel

Panthers vs. Browns Prediction

I can't believe I'm writing this, but Deshaun Watson has played much better than I expected so far this season. He's 12th in adjusted EPA and ninth in completion percentage over expected. Bryce Young has also been better than I expected this season, ranking seventh and sixth in those two metrics.

I don't know if this will last for the whole season, but it's at least going to make me bet the OVER in this game, especially considering neither of their defenses have been good to start the year. This total is way too low based on the first two weeks of data.

Pick: OVER 42 (-109) via BetRivers

Seahawks vs. Commanders Prediction

I don't know how or why, but all the Seattle Seahawks do is win games. They're the defending Super Bowl champions and are 2-0 to begin the 2026 season, yet the betting market continues to refuse to give them the level of respect they deserve. They dominate inferior opponents, and their defense is the best in the NFL. Even having Drew Lock as their quarterback didn't slow them down in Week 2.

Meanwhile, the Commanders are already a struggling team, but now Jayden Daniels is out, and Marcus Mariota will be starting. Having to face the Seattle defense is a nightmare situation for any backup quarterback to face.

Through the first two weeks, the Seahawks are second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+2.0), while the Commanders are 29th (-1.0). This bet is a no-brainer with the spread set at under a touchdown.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-107) via Caesars

Texans vs. Colts Prediction

The Colts put up a valiant fight in their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but there are some underlying numbers that have me concerned about them moving forward. First of all, they're dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -2.2 through the first two weeks. Of course, you can forgive that a bit based on the teams they've had to face so far, but it's worth noting nonetheless.

The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run, which will play right into the Texans' hands. They are top-10 in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, despite one of their first two games coming against the best rushing attack in the league.

Getting Nico Collins back for this game would certainly help our bet, but I feel comfortable betting on this Texans team to win and cover the 2.5-point spread.

Pick: Texans -2.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Jets vs. Lions Prediction

There's no denying the Lions' defense has some significant issues. There's also no denying that their offense has looked very good through the first two weeks. I refuse to sell my Lions stock after betting on them to win the Super Bowl before the season began.

Meanwhile, I still don't believe in the Jets, and a win against the Titans and an overtime loss to the Packers isn't going to change my opinion of them. Aaron Glenn's lack of in-game coaching was on display late against the Packers, and I wouldn't be surprised if that plays a factor in the outcome of this game.

The banged-up Lions' defense may only need to get a few stops to let their offense take over and lead the team to a win and cover on Sunday.

Pick: Lions -6.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Chargers vs. Bills Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers take the award as the most surprising team through the first two weeks, which puts us in a tough spot as bettors. Do we change our evaluation of them and start rating them as a bottom-10 team in the NFL, or do we buy low and expect them to turn things around?

Instead of making a call one way or another on that decision, I'm going to forego betting on the spread and focus on betting the total instead.

The Bills' offense has been unbelievable, but their 2-0 record has allowed people to overlook how bad their defense has been. They have given up 5.5 yards per play, and they rank 27th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

The Chargers' offense has a great chance to bounce back here. I can't imagine Herbert's struggles will continue, so I'm going to bet on this being a high-scoring affair.

Pick: OVER 49.5 (-110) via PointsBet

Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction

Playing in Denver in September is an extremely tough test for any team, and it looked like it affected the Jaguars, who lost momentum in the second half against them this past week. With them heading home for a game against the Patriots, I'm going to jump back on the Jaguars' bandwagon.

The Patriots have looked exactly as I thought they would through the first two weeks. They can beat up on bad teams like the Steelers, but they're going to struggle this season against top competition.

Trevor Lawrence has been the better quarterback this season, ranking 11th in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in completion percentage over expected. By comparison, Drake Maye ranks 19th and 15th in those two metrics.

I'll lay the points on the Jaguars in this one.

Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-118) via BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction

I came into the season rating the Dolphins as the worst team in the league, and while they're 0-2 and certainly aren't good, I'm questioning whether or not they're the worst of the worst. Their offense has been surprisingly average, including ranking 17th in yards per play, averaging 5.1. Now they get to play on their home field for the first time this season. That's why I'm hesitating to lay this many points on the Chiefs, which, on the surface, seems like the easy bet to make.

Instead, I'm going to bet the OVER in this one. The Chiefs' offense ranks fifth and seventh in EPA per play and success rate, and they're averaging 6.3 yards per play. They're going to score this game, and if the Dolphins are as bad as advertised, the Chiefs may get close to hitting the OVER themselves. With that being said, if the Dolphins put up a fight, it's going to be because of their offense, not their defense.

Let's bet the OVER in this AFC battle.

Pick: OVER 45.5 (-112) via Caesars

Vikings vs. Buccaneers Prediction

I have some major concerns about the Buccaneers' offense. Their underlying metrics are completely average, despite playing two bad defenses to begin the season. Baker Mayfield has also looked like a shell of himself, missing key throws in big moments. Now, he has to play against a stifling Brian Flores-led Vikings defense that is going to blitz him the entire game. I can't imagine Mayfield facing a Vikings blitz is going to go well for Tampa Bay.

On the other sideline, I also have little faith in the Vikings' offense. Even with Kyler Murray back in the lineup, they have ranked just 30th in success rate through the first two weeks.

With this game involving one elite defense and two middling offenses, I think we're going to see a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER 43.5 (-110) via FanDuel

49ers vs. Cardinals Prediction

The 49ers have made the case for being the best team in the NFL through the first two weeks, and they're healthy, which is rare for this team. They're third in EPA per play and eighth in opponent EPA per play, making them extremely balanced on both sides of the ball.

The Cardinals may not be as bad as some people expected before the season, but we're still talking about a team that's not even in the same league as the 49ers. Jacoby Brissett isn't good enough to be a starting quarterback in this league, and their defense is nothing to write home about. They're 27th in the league in Net Yards per Play (-0.9) through the first two weeks.

I won't hesitate to lay the points on the 49ers.

Pick: 49ers -7.5 (-106) via Caesars

Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction

It's been a long time since we've seen a team "deserve" to win a game to the extent they did, but ended up losing, as the Ravens did this past weekend against the Saints. Just take a peek at this Net Success Rate chart to see it visualized.

Did we really get beat that bad? Comparing offensive success rates for NFL games in Week 2: pic.twitter.com/0XSyMQgzR7
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 21, 2026

That's why I'm not too concerned about the loss and still feel confident laying the points with the Ravens in this spot. They lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+2.1), and their offense ranks inside the top six in both EPA per play and success rate. The weak part of their team has been their defense, which ranks in the middle of the pack in most metrics.

The Cowboys seem to be the same Cowboys from a year ago. Their defense has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 31st in opponent success rate. That means their offense may have to score every time they touch the ball if they want to keep pace with the Baltimore offense.

Pick: Ravens -3 (-110) via BetMGM

Raiders vs. Saints Prediction

Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, it's the Las Vegas Raiders who have the best defense in the NFL from a metrics perspective. That's right, the Raiders. They lead the league in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. I doubt that's going to remain consistent throughout the season, but it does make me think that UNDERs could be the bet for their games until the market adjusts.

Not only is their defense playing well, but their offense is playing within its means. Running the ball, completing short passes, and not asking Kirk Cousins to do too much.

That leads me to think the UNDER in the play in this game against a Saints team that seems to be relatively average on both sides of the ball.

Pick: UNDER 43.5 (-104) via FanDuel

Rams vs. Broncos Prediction

The Rams proved on Monday night that they are still one of the few elite teams in the NFL, so I'm surprised to see the odds didn't reopen over the magic number of three. The Broncos may have gotten past the Jaguars in Week 2, but I still have plenty of doubt that they can return to their 2025 form. The Broncos are 13th in Net Yards per Play at 0.0, and their offense is just 25th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate.

The Rams' roster is a step above the Broncos, and they're going to prove it in this game.

Pick: Rams -2.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Eagles vs. Bears Prediction

For the first time this season, I'm going to bet on the Bears, and it comes in a week when Caleb Williams will likely be sidelined, and they'll be rolling with Tyson Bagent as their starting quarterback.

While I do think Bagent is a serviceable backup, this bet is more of a fade of the Philadelphia Eagles, who are lucky to be 2-0 to start the year. Their offense has been downright bad, ranking 27th in success rate and averaging just 5.3 yards per play. Their defense hasn't been great either, ranking 25th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, an area the Bears can take advantage of.

Their luck is going to run out sooner or later, and this isn't a spot I feel like laying more than a field goal on the Eagles. I'll take the points with the home team.

Pick: Bears +3.5 (-115) via Caesars

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