Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 4)

Week 4 of the NFL season begins with a massive AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, who are both 2-1 to open the 2026 season.

In fact, all four teams in the AFC North are 2-1 in 2026, making this matchup a pretty big one for the standings with Baltimore playing an easy matchup against Tennessee and Cincinnati taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Oddsmakers have set the Steelers as road favorites in this game after they turned in their best offensive showing of the season in a Week 3 win over Cincy. Aaron Rodgers tossed three touchdowns in that matchup, but the Pittsburgh offense remains 31st in the NFL in EPA/Play in the 2026 campaign.

Meanwhile, the Browns are getting some pretty solid quarterback play from Deshaun Watson, knocking off Tampa Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. Watson still isn’t the player he was in Houston, but there’s no doubt that he gives the Browns’ the highest floor out of the players in their QB room.

Cleveland has back-to-back outright wins as an underdog, and it’s looking to add to that at home in this rivalry matchup. These teams have split their last 12 head-to-head matchups, so just about every time they play the game is up for grabs.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making game picks, player prop selections and more for this AFC North showdown. Here’s a compilation of our favorites ahead of Thursday’s matchup.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Steelers vs. Browns

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns +2.5 (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Iain MacMillan
Jaylen Warren OVER 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey
Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD (+300) – Peter Dewey
Raheim Sanders OVER 2.5 Receptions (+144) – Peter Dewey

Cleveland Browns +2.5 (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – Iain MacMillan

This season, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game, every week in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the underdog Browns on Thursday:

I may regret saying this, but I'm starting to think the Cleveland Browns are a better team than the betting market expected them to be. Deshaun Watson has been completely serviceable as their starting quarterback to begin the season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play. That's far above Aaron Rodgers, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, ranking 31st in that metric.

The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7. Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week. That's enough for me to back Cleveland in this spot.

Jaylen Warren OVER 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has gotten off to a strong start in 2026, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception. He’s coming off a monster showing in Week 3 against Cincinnati, playing 90.3 percent of the team’s snaps in the win.

The veteran back finished that game with 17 carries for 127 yards and three catches (on four targets) for 49 yards (176 yards from scrimmage). While Warren may not come near that number again in Week 4, I believe 94.5 total yards is a little low for him in this matchup.

During the first two weeks of the season, Warren finished with 73 and 77 rushing and receiving yards despite splitting time with Rico Dowdle. Since he’s set for another week as the bellcow in this offense, I think Warren is a must bet against a Browns team that is just 23rd in the NFL in EPA/Rush.

Harold Fannin Jr. Anytime TD (+300) – Peter Dewey

Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. caught two touchdown passes in Week 3, pulling down a season-high seven passes on nine targets.

The second-year tight end has 15 targets over his last two games, and he’s becoming a key red-zone target for Watson, who has thrown four scores in the last two weeks.

While the Steelers are pretty solid against the pass (11th in EPA/Pass), Pittsburgh has also given up four passing scores in 2026 despite the fact that it held Drake Maye without one in Week 2.

Out of all of Cleveland’s pass catchers, Fannin has been the most consistent this season, playing 84.9 percent of the team’s snaps while receiving 18 total targets.

Raheim Sanders OVER 2.5 Receptions (+144) – Peter Dewey

Browns running back Raheim (Rocket) Sanders has been the clear third-down option behind Quinshon Judkins, playing a season-high 42.9 percent of the snaps in Week 3.

This season, Sanders has three or more receptions in two games, including a four-catch game against Carolina on Sunday. The 24-year-old was targeted five times in that game, and he has nine targets across three games in 2026.

I don’t mind this prop for Sanders, especially against a tough Pittsburgh pass rush. Watson may be forced to check the ball down a lot on Thursday, which is a great sign for Sanders, especially if his snap share continues to rise.

If you want to play it safe, Sanders is -190 to record two or more receptions in this Week 4 matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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