Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 4 Picks for Every Game

Betting on every single NFL game was always going to be a tough challenge. Betting a side or total in every game each week isn't exactly how professional bettors "attack edges", so the best tool we have in our arsenal is trying to get Closing Line Value. Past that, our results are in the hands of Gamblor, the gambling god.

So far this season, we have done our job, averaging over 2% of closing line value. Unfortunately, the ball has not bounced our way, and we have suffered yet another devastating week of results. All we can do is trust the process and hope our luck turns around moving forward.

Let's turn to Week 4, the last slate of games before BYE weeks begin.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Let's turn things around this week.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 3: 5-10-1 (-5.50 units)
Season-to-date: 18-29-1 (-11.38 units)

NFL Week 4 Best Bets for Every Game

Steelers vs. Browns Prediction

I may regret saying this, but I'm starting to think the Cleveland Browns are a better team than the betting market expected them to be. Deshaun Watson has been completely serviceable as their starting quarterback to begin the season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play. That's far above Aaron Rodgers, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, ranking 31st in that metric.

The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7. Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week. That's enough for me to back Cleveland in this spot.

Pick: Browns +2.5 (+100) via DraftKings

Colts vs. Commanders Prediction

The Commanders likely won't have Jayden Daniels back at quarterback, but Marcus Mariota showed this past week that he's more than just a capable backup. What makes me really like the Commanders in this spot is that their defense has done a great job stopping the run this season. They have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry while ranking third in opponent rush EPA and sixth in opponent rush success rate.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense has been horrific to begin the season, ranking 28th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. Indianapolis isn't good enough offensively to overcome a bottom-five defense, so I'm going to take the field-goal-worth of points with the Commanders.

Pick: Commanders +3.5 (-112) via BetMGM

Jaguars vs. Bengals Prediction

I was high on the Jaguars heading into this season, and they have done nothing but impress, whereas the Bengals haven't lived up to my expectations through the first three weeks.

The Jaguars have been one of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL through the first three weeks, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play. The Chiefs are the only other team in the league that ranks inside the top six in both metrics.

The Bengals are one step below the Jaguars, ranking sixth in offensive EPA per play and 10th in defensive EPA per play. I also have some concerns about Joe Burrow, who has been good but not great so far this season, ranking 16th in adjusted EPA per play.

With the Bengals being 2.5-point home favorites, that tells me the betting market believes this would be a near coin flip at a neutral site. I disagree with that. By my evaluation, the Jaguars are the better team, so I'll back Jacksonville as the road underdog.

Pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-102) via DraftKings

Rams vs. Eagles Prediction

It's about time that we accept that the Eagles are a bad football team. Their offense ranks in the bottom five in virtually every single offensive metric, and their defense isn't nearly as good as it was a year ago.

The Rams also have some things to clean up, but having to play in Australia against the 49ers in Week 1 and then in Denver in Week 3 isn't exactly a recipe for success. They'll continue to get better with each passing week and should be well-equipped to win and cover against an Eagles team that could be in the midst of an implosion.

Pick: Rams -2.5 (-118) via DraftKings

Jets vs. Bears Prediction

We don't know yet if Caleb Williams will be back for the Bears, but if he isn't, don't bet on Chicago just because Case Keenum looked good on Monday Night Football. These types of stories seem to happen once a year, and while a backup quarterback can look amazing in his first start, he rarely keeps up that level of play.

I have to give credit to the Jets to begin the season. They aren't a playoff team, but they rank average to above average in many areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams remain one of the league's best. They can keep this game close against the Bears.

Pick: Jets +3.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Titans vs. Ravens Prediction

I told myself after Week 1 that I was done betting on the Titans moving forward, and then I went against my word and bet on them to beat the Giants, only for Cam Ward to hand the game to New York on a baffling last-second interception.

Enough is enough, I'm done betting on Tennessee.

The Ravens are 2-1 to start the season, but oddly enough, they have had some bad luck. All the underlying metrics show they should've beaten the Saints in Week 2 and should've steamrolled the Cowboys in Week 3. They're fourth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA per play, and Lamar Jackson has returned to MVP form.

I want know part of betting on the Titans and hoping they can cover this number against Baltimore.

Pick: Ravens -11.5 (-106)

Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Packers are going to be in trouble any time they face a defense that can pressure the quarterback, due to their offensive line being horrible at protecting Jordan Love this season. Unfortunately, they have faced three solid pass rushes to begin the season. Now, they face a Buccaneers team that ranks 22nd in pressure rate and 28th in quarterback hurry rate. That's good news for Green Bay, which is coming into this game off a mini-BYE after playing on Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers are starting Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start. It's impossible to predict how it's going to go for the undrafted rookie, but I'm not ready to back him and the Buccaneers as just 3.5-point underdogs.

It's time for the Packers to bounce back and get both a win and a cover.

Pick: Packers -3.5 (-107) via Caesars

Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction

I'm selling some Texans stock this week. They have a few glaring issues, the most obvious being their offense. They rank 24th in EPA per play and 21st in offensive success rate, and they have failed to score much against two defenses that are average at best. They scored just six points against the Bengals and 17 against the Colts. They now get to face an even worse defense this week, but we are sure they'll be able to score enough to keep pace with the Cowboys' high-powered offense.

The other concern is that the Texans' defense isn't what it has been the past two seasons. They're just 18th in opponent EPA per play and 16th in opponent yards per play. Those aren't the dominant numbers they were last year, which is going to put them in a tough spot against the Cowboys' offense that's third in EPA per play.

If the Texans' defense isn't dominant, they have nothing to offer against some of the better teams in the league. Give me the points with Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-105) via BetMGM

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction

It's time to buy low on the New England Patriots. I wasn't high on them coming into this season, but they're not as bad as they've shown so far this season. RBSDM.com has the Patriots ranking last in their offensive luck index. Things have not bounced their way, but I expect them to show some level of life in the coming weeks. They rank ninth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+0.3), and their defense ranks in the top half of the NFL in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

The Bills' defense is going to come back to haunt them at some point. They're 25th in opponent EPA per play, 27th in opponent success rate, and 19th in opponent yards per play (5.4). Even with your offense being elite, it's going to be hard to win by margin with that defense.

I'll take the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots +7 (-115) via TheScore Bet

Cardinals vs. Giants Prediction

There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Giants' offense with Jaxson Dart out, but one thing we know for certain with these two teams is that both defenses are amongst the worst in the NFL.

The Giants and Cardinals rank 27th and 29th in opponent EPA per play, 24th and 26th in opponent success rate, and 26th and 31st in opponent yards per play. Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense ranks inside the top half of the NFL in many metrics, which shouldn't be too surprising when you consider the number of offensive weapons they have.

That's enough for me to bet the OVER on a relatively low total of 43.5.

Pick: OVER 43.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Dolphins vs. Vikings Prediction

I think now is the time to sell high on the Vikings and buy low, to an extent, on the Dolphins. According to RBSDM.com, the Vikings rank first in defensive luck and fifth in offensive luck, and it makes sense when you consider the fact that they're 3-0 despite being 23rd in Net Yards per Play (-0.5) and dead last in offensive success rate.

The Dolphins are certainly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and the injury to De'Von Achane doesn't help, but 10.5 points is a lot in any NFL game, especially when one side has overperformed based on their underlying metrics.

Pick: Dolphins +10.5 (-107) via BetRivers

Broncos vs. 49ers Prediction

By a lot of metrics, the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL through the first three weeks. They are first in Net Yards per Play (+2.5), first in EPA per play, and first in success rate. To be fair, two of their first three games came against the Dolphins and Cardinals, but I'm extremely high on this team.

Now they get to face a Broncos team that I'm still not sold on. They managed to win two games at home, a historically tough place for opponents to play in September, and the game against the Rams finished with a handful of questionable calls that went Denver's way. Overall, the Broncos are 25th in Net Yards per Play (-0.6), and Bo Nix is just 26th in adjusted EPA per play and 27th in completion percentage over expected.

With the spread below a field goal, I think the 49ers are a great bet on their home field.

Pick: 49ers -2.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Chargers vs. Seahawks Prediction

There's going to come a time when the Mike McDaniel offense is going to click for the Chargers, but I don't think a road game against one of the best defenses in the NFL is the time that's going to happen. This Los Angeles offense is in a bad spot right now, ranking 31st in EPA per play and 24th in success rate.

I'm not going to look too much into the Seahawks' loss to the Commanders. By almost every underlying metric in that game, Seattle was the far better team in that game but a handful of weird plays going against them led to the upset loss.

At some point soon, I'm going to buy-low on the Chargers. This is not the week I'm going to do it.

Pick: Seahawks -7 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

The Raiders' defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL to start the year, ranking second in opponent EPA per play and eighth in opponent success rate. They've also allowed just 5.2 yards per snap.

The Kansas City defense has also been elite, ranking third in opponent yards per play (4.7), while also ranking sixth in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate.

I understand this is a game that Patrick Mahomes will be playing in, but other than that, I'm surprised by the total of 47.5. Both defenses have been top-10 units, so I expect this total to go UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 47.5 (-106) via Caesars

Lions vs. Panthers Prediction

I'm still buying in on the Lions. They're going to start to get healthy on defense, and I still believe the betting market isn't evaluating them fairly. They have had the second-worst defensive luck through the first three weeks, according to RBSDM.com, which makes me even more confident in my conviction that this team is an NFC contender.

Meanwhile, last week showed me that maybe I was too quick to give Bryce Young credit after a hot start. He had a bad outing against the Cleveland Browns, so I don't think we can pencil in the Panthers racking up points against the Lions on Sunday.

I'll take Detroit to win and cover for the second straight week.

Pick: Lions -3.5 (-105) via Caesars

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction

I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.

I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.

I'm willing to bet by the final whistle on Monday night, the NFC South will go through Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons +130 via DraftKings

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