Betting the Midwest Region in 2026 NCAA Tournament: Predictions, Odds Upsets for March Madness

The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket has been released, so it's time to dive into each region before the Round of 64 tips off on Thursday.

In this article, we're going to dive into the Midwest Region. The Michigan Wolverines are set as the No. 1 seed in the region and are looking to bounce back after being upset by the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Tournament Final. Iowa State, Virginia, and Alabama round out the top four seeds in this region.

All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Midwest Region Opening Odds

No. 16 UMBC (-1.5) vs. No. 16 Howard *First Four*
No. 11 Miami OH vs. No. 11 SMU (-7.5) *First Four*
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 8 Georgia (-2.5)
No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky (-3.5)
No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (-7.5)
No. 14 Wright State vs. No. 3 Virginia (-18.5)
No. 15 Tennessee State vs. No. 2 Iowa State (-25.5)
No. 13 Hofstra vs. No. 4 Alabama (-14.5)

Odds to Win Midwest Region

Michigan -130
Iowa State +245
Virginia +1100
Tennessee +1300
Texas Tech +1700
Alabama +2200
Kentucky +4500
Georgia +6500
Santa Clara +7500
Saint Louis +17000
SMU +20000
Hofstra +40000
Akron +50000
Miami Ohio +70000
Wright State +80000
UMBC +80000
Tennessee State +80000
Howard +80000

Each Midwest Region Team's Odds to Win March Madness

Michigan +360
Iowa State +1500
Virginia +7500
Tennessee +12000
Texas Tech +13000
Alabama +18000
Kentucky +20000
Saint Louis +40000
Georgia +50000
Santa Clara +50000
SMU +50000
Akron +100000
Miami OH +150000
Hofstra +200000
Wright State +200000
UMB +200000
Tennessee State +200000
Howard +200000

Predicting Who Will Win the Midwest Region in 2026 NCAA Tournament

Pick: Iowa State +245

In my opinion, six teams are a step above the rest this season, and Iowa State is one of them. The Cyclones were one of the best teams in the best conference this season, the Big 12, and racked up several impressive wins. They have no weakness, ranking 20th in effective field goal percentage and third in defensive efficiency.

If they face Michigan in the Elite 8 with the Final Four on the line, Iowa State will have a stylistic advantage. The biggest weakness of the Wolverines is that they occasionally run into turnover trouble. They rank 183rd in turnovers per possession, turning the ball over 16.3% of the time. That could come back to haunt them against Iowa State, which ranks fourth in the country and first amongst all power conference teams in opponent turnovers per possession (21.9%).

For that reason, I'll take Iowa State to win this region and advance to the Final Four.

Midwest Region Upset Pick and Prediction

Akron +260 vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech already has some weaknesses, including ranking outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency, but what's going to affect them the most is the absence of JT Toppin. With their best player sidelined for the tournament with an injury, the Red Raiders are ripe for an upset.

Miami Ohio may be the talk of the MAC after having an undefeated regular season, but the Akron Zips are the true best team the conference has to offer. The Zips are one of the best shooting teams in the country, ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage, while also ranking 89th in defensive efficiency. If their shooting gets hot, they have a chance to pull off a class 12 vs. 5 upset.