Blue Jays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 3

The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians have split the first two-games of their three-game set this week, setting up a crucial rubber match on Thursday afternoon.

Both of these teams are battling for a playoff spot in the American League, with the Guardians currently holding the No. 3 wild card, sitting 1.5 games ahead of Toronto, Baltimore and Texas.

So, any losing streak could bury one of these teams over the final stretch of the regular season.

On Thursday, Toronto has trade deadline addition Jose Soriano (3.45 ERA) on the mound against Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee (3.88 ERA). Both of these starters have put together solid seasons, but they also rank in the 37th percentile or worse in expected ERA.

Oddsmakers have set the Jays as slight favorites on the road after they won yesterday’s game 11-0.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this series finale on Sept. 3.

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays -1.5 (+153)
Guardians +1.5 (-186)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: -112
Guardians: -107

Total

8 (Over -105/Under -112)

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Jose Soriano (11-7, 3.45 ERA)
Cleveland: Tanner Bibee (5-14, 3.88 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 3
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): Sportsnet, CLEGuardians.TV
Blue Jays record: 69-71
Guardians record: 70-69

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+506)

Blue Jays outfielder George Springer is swinging a hot bat as of late, hitting .311 over his last 24 games (18 starts), .405 over his last 12 games (10 starts) and .455 over the last week (six starts).

The four-time All-Star has two home runs over the last week, pushing his season total to 14 in 100 games. Yet, he’s set at +506 to go deep against Cleveland on Thursday afternoon.

Springer has homered off of Bibee before, going 2-for-9 with one long ball in limited appearances against him. Bibee has really struggled to limit homers in 2026, allowing 26 in his 28 appearances.

On top of that, he ranks in just the 20th percentile in ground-ball percentage, which means the Jays should be able to lift the ball on Thursday.

Springer hasn’t displayed elite power this season, but he’s been red hot at the dish for several weeks. I think this is a pretty favorable price for the veteran outfielder as the Jays look to take this series finale.

Blue Jays vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

There hasn’t been a major difference between Soriano and Bibee in the 2025 season, and these two teams are both in the bottom five in the league in OPS and the bottom 10 in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

Soriano has a sub-4.00 ERA, but his expected ERA (4.48) sits in just the 30th percentile this season. The right-hander has a 4.13 ERA in five starts with the Jays, but he’s been good enough for the team to win four of those matchups.

Meanwhile, Bibee has an expected ERA in the 37th percentile (4.30) and ranks in the 33rd percentile in expected batting average against. He’s allowed three or more runs in four of his last five starts, posting a 4.20 ERA in the month of August.

While I think these teams are very even, I can’t look past the fact that Cleveland is just 8-20 with Bibee on the mound in 2026. The right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs in 15 of his 28 starts, yet it hasn’t been enough for the Guardians to win even half of his outings.

On the other hand, Soriano has led his teams (the Los Angeles Angels and Blue Jays) to a 16-11 record in his outings this season.

I’ll take a shot on the Jays winning this series finale after an 11-run outburst on Wednesday.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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