Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 21

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are both still alive in the AL playoff race, but they’ll need some help to get in.

The Jays are three games back of the Chicago White Sox entering Monday’s series opener with Baltimore, which is five games back and in danger of getting eliminated from contention early on this week.

The Jays made the World Series in 2025, but they’ve taken a clear step back in 2026, sitting at two games under .500 (77-79) at this point in the season.

Youngster Trey Yesavage (3.65 ERA) is set to make his first appearance since early August after he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee. The Jays are hoping he can close out the regular season strong and have some momentum as one of their top arms entering 2027.

The Orioles will counter with Shane Baz (4.11 ERA), who has received very little run support in 2026, leading to the O’s dropping nine of his 30 starts.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this AL East showdown on Monday night.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Blue Jays -1.5 (+155)
Orioles +1.5 (-188)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: -107
Orioles: -112

Total

7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA)
Baltimore: Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 21
Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, MASN, Sportsnet, TVA
Blue Jays record: 77-79
Orioles record: 75-81

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Kazuma Okamoto to Hit a Home Run (+426)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Okamoto is a solid bet against the O’s:

Blue Jays infielder Kazuma Okamoto has 33 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s heating up over the last two weeks with five home runs in his last 12 games, posting an OPS over 1.000 during that stretch.

There aren’t a lot of choices on Monday, so taking a player with north of 30 home runs at +426 is a pretty solid price.

Okamoto is 1-for-3 against Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz in his career, and Baz has given up four home runs in three starts so far this month. Now, the righty has only allowed 15 homers in 30 appearances this season, but I do think there’s some value in taking Okamoto against a right-hander, as 23 of his 33 home runs have come against righties.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

This season, Baz is receiving just 3.35 runs of support per game, which is the third-fewest in MLB.

The O’s have dropped 21 of Baz’s 30 outings, even though he’s kept his ERA in the low 4.00-range while posting an expected ERA of 4.21.

It’s unclear how much length the Jays will get from Yesavage in his first start in nearly two months, but they have a top-10 bullpen ERA backing him up.

Both of these teams are long shots to make the playoffs, and I’m not going to go against the Baz trend that we’ve seen in recent weeks. The right-hander has led the team to a win in three of his last four outings, but he’s also allowed eight runs over his last two starts.

With the Jays’ season on the line in this series, I don’t mind taking them as underdogs in this series opener.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-107 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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