Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 23 (Game 1)

A doubleheader is set to get the ball rolling on Wednesday in MLB, as the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are both looking to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Baltimore is five games out of a wild card spot and can’t afford a loss the rest of the season to have a chance to get in while the Jays are four games back and facing a very similar fate.

Both of these teams are under .500 and have squandered chances to catch the group ahead of them that consists of the Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros. Currently, Houston and Cleveland lead their respective divisions and Chicago has a three-game cushion on the final wild card spot.

In Game 1 of this Jays vs. O’s doubleheader, veteran Max Scherzer is on the bump for Toronto against a former Blue Jay in Chris Bassitt. Scherzer (6.07 ERA) has not been able to find his former Cy Young form in 2026, and oddsmakers have set the Jays as underdogs in this matchup as a result.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Wednesday’s AL East showdown.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Blue Jays +1.5 (-206)
Orioles -1.5 (+169)

Moneyline

Blue Jays: +104
Orioles: -126

Total

7 (Over -118/Under -102)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

Toronto: Max Scherzer (3-6, 6.07 ERA)
Baltimore: Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 23
Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): MASN, Sportsnet, TVA
Rays record: 77-80
Yankees record: 76-81

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+466)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Henderson is worth a look in Game 1 of this doubleheader:

Henderson has 24 home runs in the 2026 season, posting just a .224 batting average and a .718 OPS. He’s taken a bit of a step back at the dish, but the one-time All-Star has been hot over the final month of the regular season.

The O’s shortstop has two home runs in his last 10 games, hitting. 342 with a 1.024 OPS during that stretch. On top of that, Henderson is hitting .350 with three extra-base hits in his last five games.

On Wednesday, he takes on Toronto Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer, who has a 6.07 ERA and has allowed 14 home runs in 16 appearances this season.

Henderson has some strong numbers against Scherzer in his career, going 4-for-10 with a double and a .955 OPS. He hasn’t homered against the former Cy Young winner, but Scherzer has clearly been prone to the long ball in 2026.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Both of these pitchers are past their prime, and Scherzer has really shown that with several blow-up outings in 2026 where he allowed five or more runs.

He ranks in just the 36th percentile in expected ERA, though Bassitt is not any better, sitting in the 15th percentile across his 19 starts.

It would be shocking if either of these teams made the playoffs, and this doubleheader could doom them both if they split. When it comes to Game 1, I’m going to ride with Bassitt and his recent success.

The O’s right-hander has actually pitched pretty well since coming off the injured list last month, leading them to a 5-2 record in seven starts. He has a 3.76 ERA during that stretch, allowing three or fewer runs in six of those outings.

Baltimore has not been great at home (five games under .500), but I lean with the Orioles to take Game 1 of this doubleheader.

The Jays are just 6-10 with Scherzer on the mound, and their offense (28th in OPS, 24th in Weighted Runs Created Plus) has been much worse than Baltimore’s in 2026.

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-126 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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