Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 7

Both the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are in the driver’s seat when it comes to clinching a playoff spot this season, and they’re still in a battle for the NL East crown.

Philly is now five games back of Atlanta after blowing a lead on Sunday, and it would need a really strong finish to surpass an Atlanta team that could end up knocking on the door of 100 wins in the 2026 regular season.

Monday’s matchup is the final game of a four-game set, and the Phils need a win to salvage a 2-2 split.

Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.02 ERA) is on the bump for the Phils, and he’s led them to an impressive 20-8 record in his 28 starts this season. He’ll take on righty Grant Holms (3.62 ERA), who threw just three innings in his last outing against the Washington Nationals.

Oddsmakers have set Philly as the favorite in this series finale as it looks to build on a strong 39-32 record at home in 2026.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this NL East battle.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves +1.5 (-154)
Phillies -1.5 (+128)

Moneyline

Braves: +139
Phillies: -168

Total

8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Atlanta: Grant Holmes (9-5, 2.62 ERA)
Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (13-5, 3.02 ERA)

Braves vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 7
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): BravesVision, NBC 10
Braves record: 85-58
Phillies record: 80-63

Braves vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

Jesus Luzardo UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-109)

This season, Luzardo ranks in the 69th percentile in walk percentage, and now he’s taking on an Atlanta team that is in the bottom five in the league in walk rate.

The Phillies left-hander has allowed multiple free passes in 16 of his 28 starts, so there is some risk when it comes to this prop. Still, he’s allowed just 51 total walks in nearly 170 innings of work.

The Braves average just 2.9 walks per game (28th in MLB) so it wouldn’t shock me if Luzardo avoids multiple free passes in this series finale.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column why I like Philly with Luzardo on the mound:

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to salvage a split against the Atlanta Braves after blowing a lead on Sunday to push them to five games back in the NL East.

Luckily, Philly has All-Star lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.02 ERA) on the mound for Monday’s matchup. He’ll take on righty Grant Holmes (3.62 ERA), who has some shaky advanced numbers for the Braves, ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA and the 31st percentile in expected batting average against.

The Braves are in the driver’s seat to win this division, but I’m buying Philly at home on Monday with Luzardo on the mound. The Phils are 20-8 in his 28 appearances this season, and the lefty sits in the 91st percentile in expected ERA and 85th in expected BAA.

He has a 1.32 ERA since Aug. 1, leading the Phils to a perfect 6-0 record in those starts.

Meanwhile, Holmes has seen his Fielding Independent Pitching jump to 4.71 this season. The Braves are 19-8 when he’s on the mound, but the righty has not been nearly as effective as Luzardo, ranking in the 23rd percentile in strikeout percentage, the 12th percentile in hard-hit percentage and posting several other shaky metrics.

I think Philly is able to come away with a split on Monday afternoon.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-168 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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