Braves vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 9

Thursday’s MLB action kicks off with the series finale between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates after these teams split the first two games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Pittsburgh’s offense hung 12 runs on the Braves in Tuesday’s win, but Atlanta shut the Pirates out on Wednesday to earn a 3-0 win.

The Braves remain in first place in the NL East, and they are slight favorites on the road with Bryce Elder (4.01 ERA) on the mound in this matchup. He’ll take on Pirates veteran Mitch Keller (5.02 ERA), who has struggled over the last month.

Pittsburgh is just one game over .500, but it has an impressive plus-38 run differential, a sign that it could make a second-half run in a loaded NL Central division.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Thursday night.

Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Braves -1.5 (+133)
Pirates +1.5 (-161)

Moneyline

Braves: -120
Pirates: +100

Total

9.5 (Over -114/Under -105)

Braves vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Atlanta: Bryce Elder (5-6, 4.01 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (6-6, 5.02 ERA)

Braves vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 9
Time: 12:35 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): BravesVision, MLB.TV
Braves record: 53-38
Pirates record: 47-46

Braves vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Pirates Team Total OVER 9.5 Hits (+110)

The Pirates have one of the best offenses in MLB this season, ranking third in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), first in hits, second in batting average and second in OPS.

They already had a 14-hit game against Atlanta in this series, and I love the matchup for the Pirates on Thursday.

Elder has given up 35 hits over his last five starts, including outings with 10 and 12 hits allowed. He’s given up at least nine hits in three of his last six outings, lowering his expected batting average against to .244 this season (47th percentile in MLB).

Even though Atlanta is No. 2 in MLB in bullpen ERA, I think there’s a chance Pittsburgh is flirting with this number before Elder exits on Thursday afternoon.

Braves vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB best column why the OVER is worth a look with these starters on the mound:

Two struggling starters are set to face off in Thursday’s series finale between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates, as Bryce Elder gets the ball for Atlanta against Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller.

After a strong start to the season, Elder had a brutal month of June, posting a 8.10 ERA in five starts, allowing 35 hits in just 26.2 innings of work. He’s given up five or more runs in four of his last six outings, making him a tough pitcher to bet on against a Pittsburgh offense that is No. 3 in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).

Meanwhile, Keller has been awful in the 2026 season, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the third percentile in expected batting average against. The Pirates right-hander has an actual ERA of 5.02 this season, and he’s been awful since late May, posting a 7.50 ERA over his last five starts.

Now, Atlanta is just 19th in MLB in wRC+, but it’s scored the eighth-most runs in MLB.

I think this pitching matchup is the perfect recipe for an OVER, especially since these teams already combined for double-digit runs earlier in this series.

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-114 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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