British Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Justin Rose, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick

The final major of the golf season is here! Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to defend his title and win the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, though he has some stiff competition at the top of the oddsboard. The SI Golf betting panel is looking to add another outright winner to our card and finish this major season with a bang!

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

A few of us were close with our outright picks at last week’s Scottish Open, but ultimately we didn’t hit on Tom Kim. We do have 10 outrights and first-round lead cashes on the year, though we’re still looking for our first in the majors.

Royal Birkdale has hosted 10 Open Championships. Jordan Spieth won the most recent one and all but one of the winners there in the past were multi-time major champions.

It’s been a dry summer in England and the course looks like it will be playing fast and firm. Trajectory, shot shaping and spin control will be critical to avoid wayward drives into fescue. The good news is the weather looks perfect. While wind gusts will be a factor, they’re not projecting anything severe, which should lead to low scores.

Rory McIlroy won the Masters as the second betting favorite, Aaron Rai was a longshot winner at the PGA Championship and Wyndham Clark won with mid-odds at the U.S. Open. While longshots have won the Open in the past, most recently and notably Brian Harman at +15000 in 2023, three of the past four winners had +2000 odds or shorter.

When handicapping, I focused on elite ball strikers with close proximity to the hole metrics. It’s always hard to project who will spike with the flatstick at these events, but that’s typically a key metric at the end of the week. You also don’t need to be a bomber to succeed here. With limited elevation changes and firm fairways, ball placement is key.

Let’s get into our picks, with a full breakdown explaining them all below the graphic.

Open Championship expert betting picks — Open Championship betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Robert MacIntyre +3900 (DraftKings)

I've been waiting for when Robert MacIntyre was going to start peaking this season, and now seems like the right time. He has finished inside the top 15 in three of his last four starts, including a T3 finish at last week's Scottish Open, gaining +2.49 strokes on the field with his approach play. He already has some strong finishes at the British Open, including a T6 finish in 2019, a T8 finish in 2021, and a T7 finish last year. This could be the week he wins his first career major.

Brian Kirschner: Si Woo Kim +4600 (DraftKings)

Look, am I due to feel very dumb after betting Si Woo in a major? Yes, but I really do think that this is a great spot for him. Playing well at the Scottish has been a key point of success in playing well the next week at The Open and I love that Si Woo finished T9 last week. He gained strokes in all major categories on a course that doesn't fit him and this is much more of a fit this week. I think Si Woo can really putt well on these flat surfaces and let his iron game shine.

Brad Thomas: Collin Morikawa +3400 (DraftKings)

Collin Morikawa might be an interesting golfer this week because it’s hard to ignore what he brings to the table at Royal Birkdale. He’s going to play from the fairway and light the field up on approach. If you go back to the start of the season when he won at Pebble Beach, he was playing like one of the best golfers in the world. He had a minor setback with the injury, but even after that, he still played some really good golf. It looks like he’s healthier now than he was a month ago, and if that’s the case, I think he’s got a great chance to contend.

Byron Lindeque: Justin Rose +3900 (DraftKings)

In 1998, Justin Rose finished T4 at this very venue in his debut Open. Almost three decades later, the 46-year-old returns to the soil where his career blossomed as a 17-year-old amateur. It would take him 20 years to improve on that Open finish, with a T2 at the 2018 Championship, which he then matched in 2024 again, falling two shots short of Xander that year. Since that T2 in ‘24, he has had major finishes of 2nd (‘24 Masters), T16 (‘25 Open), T3 (‘26 Masters), T10 (‘26 PGA) and T11 at the U.S. Open last month. This all adds up to seven top 16 finishes in his last 10 majors. It’s time for Rose to rise to the occasion at the place it all began!

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3300 (DraftKings)

Viktor Hovland has been lost in the wilderness for large parts of the year. But I think he’s had a “FOUND IT” moment. A win over Scottie at the Travelers and then a late push for a Top 20 at the Scottish — especially with ball striking being the driving force — has me believing that he can make a run at The Open. That’s especially true when you look at his first three starts in this major.

Brian Giuffra: Matt Fitzpatrick +1850 (DraftKings)

I actually bet Fitzpatrick last week at +2000 (as teased in this panel when I also bet him to win the Scottish Open), but I want to give the latest (and best) odds for him right now for the panel. I believe Fitzpatrick would have won last week if his third round wasn’t suspended due to darkness after a morning delay. He was gaming. Then the suspension and a rather ho-hum finish left him T3. But I see no reason to get off him now. His approach game continues to spike and he should be able to position himself nicely off the tee at Royal Birkdale. I’ve already cashed on Fitzpatrick outright at the Valspar. Let’s make it two this season, and the second major of his career.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Corey Conners +14500 (DraftKings)

I'm shocked we're able to bet on Corey Conners at +14500. While his history of failing to bring his best stuff on Sunday may make him better as a top 5, top 10, or top 20 bet, I can't ignore him this week. Not only has he historically been one of the better golfers during windy conditions over the past few years, but he's also coming into this event off a T23 at the U.S. Open and a T7 finish at the Travelers Championship. In both those starts, he gained significant strokes from tee to green. He also had a T10 finish at last year's British Open, proving he can thrive on links courses.

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Reed +6300 (DraftKings)

Going with the trend of longer odds golfer that played well at the Scottish, Reed is worth a punt at this price. Reed played very solidly at the year's first two majors and has also won twice on the DP World Tour. Reed putted and hit his irons great last week, which I think will be the key to success. I worry less about his OTT troubles here. He is an experienced major champion who I think can play well overseas.

Brad Thomas: Sam Burns +5500 (DraftKings)

Sam Burns. Wow, what an incredible season he’s having, but he still has yet to hoist a trophy. He could be in for a major lift this week after welcoming a child last weekend. I like the fact that he’s going to be a great ball striker here, and we already know he can roll the rock with the best of them. Let’s see if he can finally get over the finish line.

Byron Lindeque: Brian Harman +11500 (DraftKings)

The man is a maestro of the mud major! When you have to keep it straight, low, and scramble your face off in tough conditions, the 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year is going to be hovering around the top of the leaderboard. Being priced in the triple-digit range, considering four of his last five Open Championship appearances have been top 20s, seems like a misprice that ignores his Open pedigree. He has had solid top 25 finishes at the Travelers, Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage this year, which is enough of a pulse to find life on the links again.

Cody Williams: Patrick Reed +6600 (DraftKings)

Accurate driver. Spiking on approach this season. Elite creativity and short game. Patrick Reed is overdue for something big this season, and his T13 at the Scottish Open has me believing that he’s about to be a factor at Birkdale in the forecasted conditions.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley +5100 (DraftKings)

I’m ready to have my heart broken by Russell Henley. Again. While the approach game hasn’t been consistent this year, he’s had several spike tournaments, including his win at Valspar and a T3 at the Masters. At this price, I feel that chance is worth taking. Henley was T10 at the Open last year and 5th the year before. He also made the cut when the Open was here in 2017, finishing T37. He’s contended in majors many times before, so I don’t think pressure will be an issue. Plus, I always like Henley at falter courses where distance isn’t as important as accuracy.

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Nick Taylor +11500 (DraftKings)

You likely wouldn't guess it, but Nick Taylor has been one of the best golfers in the world this season, but only in the opening round. Across the past six months, he's fourth in the field in total strokes gained in opening rounds of events, behind only Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Fitzpatrick. He admittedly doesn't have a strong history at the British Open, but a decent T26 finish at last week's Scottish Open is a promising sign coming into this week. I can't resist taking a chance on him at 115-1.

Brian Kirschner: Robert MacIntyre +4500 (FanDuel)

I do think that the FRL will come from the AM wave, as we are seeing some wind come in the afternoon. Bob goes out early and is coming off a great performance at his hometown Scottish Open. While he has had success in majors before, I think that a FRL at Birkdale is perfect for him. He's back in form and can always post a low one.

Brad Thomas: Chris Gotterup +4500 (FanDuel)

This dude is such a spike round golfer. After a poor Sunday at the Scottish, I think he comes out flying!

Byron Lindeque: Tyrrell Hatton +4400 (DraftKings)

He leads the field in R1 strokes gained over the last 12 months and he is also in some incredibly good form in LIV, DPWT and Majors. The price is very affordable for somebody who also gets an AM tee time

Cody Williams: Chris Gotterup +4500 (FanDuel)

Even with the label of a bomber, we keep seeing Chris Gotterup pop up as a real threat in different styles of tournaments. He looks the part of a dawg, and I expect him to contend this week. But for the FRL specifically, I’d argue that few players in the field can catch as strong of lightning in a bottle as Gotterup, so I’ll take him to come out of the gates hot.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose +4500 (FanDuel)

Rose has a history of first-round leads in majors and a history of success at the Open. He was T2 in this event in 2024, and 2018 and was T16 last year. He also made the cut all three times the Open was here during his career, including a T4 in 1998 when he burst onto the scene, nearly winning as an amateur. He’s contended at all three majors this year and I expect to see him in contention in this one too. That starts on Thursday, when he has a favorable early tee time.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Victor Perez Top Frenchman +154 (DraftKings)

I don't expect a golfer from France to truly contend this week, but this is a great way to bet on Victor Perez, who comes into this week's event in great form. He finished T9 at both the BMW Championship and the Scottish Open in back-to-back weeks, and he finished T2 at the Soudal Open. The other French golfers in the field are Adrien Saddier, Antoine Rozner, Martin Couvra, and Frederic Lacroix. Three of those four golfers missed the cut last week, and Saddier finished T61. Overall, none of the four competitors has been in nearly as good form as Perez ahead of this week.

Brian Kirschner: Tom Kim Top 30 +118 (DraftKings)

As straightforward as it get:, won last week on links and has had success in Opens before. Tom is certainly going to carry the confidence of last week into a nice week at birkdale and top 30 seems like a good number.

Brad Thomas: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 -110 (DraftKings)

Form is way too good not to take this number.

Byron Lindeque: Xander Schauffele Top 20 +120 (FanDuel)

Schauffele has two more major top 20s in his last 18 starts than this writeup. (17 of 18)

Cody Williams: Tom Kim Top 20 incl. ties +188 (BetMGM)

I don’t care about the juju after Tom Kim won the Scottish. His ball striking is top five in the field, including elite driving accuracy. If his putting cooperates (because his play around the green has been above-solid), he’ll cash this easily.

Brian Giuffra: Chris Gotterup Top 20 incl. ties +125 (FanDuel)

Gotterup has two wins and five other Top 20s this year. He was T11 at the Scottish Open last week and 3rd in his debut Open Championship appearance last year. His putter is rolling hot and his approach game has been outstanding all season. He also had a good showing at the PGA Championship (T10) and the Masters (T24). He’s built to last in these kinds of tournaments.

Winning Score

Iain MacMillan: -10
Brian Kirschner: -14
Brad Thomas: -10
Byron Lindeque: -14
Cody Williams: -10
Brian Giuffra: -12

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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