Broncos vs. Chiefs Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (Kansas City Will Win and Cover and Monday Night)

The Kansas City Chiefs had a season from hell in 2025, whereas the Denver Broncos had a dream season up until the AFC Championship Game. Now, the two teams will begin their 2026 seasons against each other on Monday Night Football.

The Broncos ended the Chiefs' nine-year AFC West reign last season, capturing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Unfortunately, a Bo Nix injury in the Divisional Round against the Bills severely hurt their chances against the Patriots, ending in a heartbreaking loss.

Let's dive into the odds for this game and then I'll predict the final score.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Broncos +2.5 (-110)
Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Broncos +114
Chiefs -134

Total

OVER 43.5 (-112)
UNDER 43.5 (-108)

The spread has moved half a point towards the Broncos. The Chiefs were 3-point favorites earlier this week, but they're now down to 2.5-point favorites. Getting off the magic number of three is significant in the betting market, which means there has been sharp money coming in on Denver.

The total has remained steady at 43.5 throughout the week.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Score Prediction

In the Week 1 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I'm backing the Chiefs to win and cover the spread:

This is a fascinating game for several reasons. Not only did the Denver Broncos break the Kansas City Chiefs' nine-year AFC West reign last season, but the Broncos are now trying to prove that last year was a fluke, and the Chiefs are trying to prove it was. Patrick Mahomes will be back healthy and looking to return to his MVP form. Finally, this is a game between a team that went 11-2 in one-score games a year ago, the best mark in football, and a team that went 1-9 in one-score games, the worst mark in football.

Everything that could have gone the Broncos' way last season did, while everything that could have gone wrong for the Chiefs went wrong. That's why I'm thinking about more than last year's results. The Chiefs are healthy and the better team from top to bottom. I'll back them as slight home favorites in the Week 1 edition of Monday Night Football.

When it comes to the total, I expect it to be a relatively low-scoring game. The Broncos' offense is the unit that I expect to regress this season, while their defense will continue to be one of the best in the NFL.

I also expect the Chiefs to rely on the run game to help ease Mahomes back into action.

Final score predition: Broncos 17, Chiefs 21

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