Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Score Prediction for NFL Week 5 (Can Tampa Bay Cover?)

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are a win away from getting back over .500 this season, and they’re heavily favored to make it happen in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Dallas opens the week on Thursday night – at home – after it knocked off the Houston Texans in Week 4. The Cowboys are just one game out of first place in the NFC East, and they enter this game with one of the best offenses in the league (fifth in EPA/Play, eighth in success rate) in 2026.

The same can’t be said for the Bucs, who are without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb) on Thursday. Tampa Bay scored just 14 points without Mayfield in a Week 4 loss to the Green Bay Packers, and it ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA/Play through four games.

Rookie Jalon Daniels, who was signed as an undrafted free agent, is in line to make his second career start after throwing for 148 yards, one score and a pick in Week 4. He may have an easier time against a weak Dallas defense, but will it be enough to keep up with Prescott and Co.?

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting the score of NFL games to help bettors make a decision on the spread, moneyline and total bets. Plus, we may get a score exactly correct along the way.

With the Buccaneers starting Daniels, this spread has really shifted towards a Dallas team that is in the mix to win the NFC East in 2026. Here’s how I see this game going on Thursday.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Bucs +8.5 (-108)
Cowboys -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Bucs: +350
Cowboys: -455

Total

47.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

The Cowboys opened as 10-point favorites in this matchup, but that line has come down to 8.5 in the lead up to Thursday night.

Tampa Bay has really struggled against the spread this season, yet Daniels looked competent in Week 4 in a narrow loss to Green Bay.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Score Prediction

Each week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his best bets for every NFL game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Bucs to cover in Week 5:

I know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been bad this year, and Jalon Daniels is going to get another start, but I can't lay this many points on this Cowboys team based on how truly awful their defense is. They rank 31st in opponent EPA per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA, and last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.4 yards per snap.

Even when facing a depleted Buccaneers' offense led by an undrafted rookie at quarterback, I have no faith in them being able to hold a big enough lead to cover this spread.

We should also give credit to the Buccaneers' defense, which is fifth in opponent EPA per play and sixth in opponent success rate while giving up only 5.0 yards per snap this season.

With that big of a discrepancy on the defensive side of the ball, I'll take the points with Tampa Bay.

There are some serious concerns with the Dallas defense, which is one of the three-worst teams in the league in EPA/Play, yet they’re a top-five team in EPA/Play on offense. So, I really like the OVER on Thursday night.

Dallas should be able to move the ball fairly easily in this game, and I think the Bucs looked better than expected in a cover against Green Bay in Week 4. I’ll bet on Dallas winning with another 30-point showing on Thursday.

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 31, Bucs 23

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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