Cadillac Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Gotterup, Winner W/O Scottie

The PGA Tour returns to The Blue Monster for the first time since 2016. The list of most recent winners here (Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Justin Rose) paints a clear picture of the type of golfer you want to bet on despite a decade-long absence for the Tour:

Major championship pedigree, elite ball strikers, long off the tee. These are things I considered when handicapping the event.

The SI Golf betting panel features Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction. SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan is off for the next two weeks for his honeymoon.

None of us cashed on the Fitzpatrick bros outright market last week, but we did have a monster week on the prop side of things, adding +6.4 units as a group. That after our fourth outright hit and third first-round leader cash of the season the previous week at RBC Heritage.

We’re back for another signature event this week. Smaller field, no cut, Scottie Scheffler on top, and none of us are betting him. Though we do have one person heavily invested in the winner without Scottie market....

Let’s jump into our betting picks with full breakdowns on the picks below the graphic.

Cadillac Championship betting picks. | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Brian Kirschner: Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (FanDuel)

I really like the way that Deki played at Augusta. The fact that he is coming off more rest than the rest of the field is really great as well. I am happy to take the win equity of a major champ and multiple-time PGA Tour winner at the Blue Monster this week.

Brad Thomas: Chris Gotterup +2800 (DraftKings)

First in driving distance, fifth in SG: Off the Tee, and 13th in putting on Bermuda, you couldn’t build a course more suited for Chris Gotterup. At +2800, it feels like a steal. It may feel like a lifetime ago, but he’s already won twice this season and could very well add a third this week.

Byron Lindeque: Min Woo Lee +2600 w/o Scottie (DraftKings)

If his 3rd and WIN at Houston are any sort of comp course history to hang our hat on, we can expect good things from Woozie this week given his exceptional distance off the tee and his much-improved iron play. His approach numbers are spearheaded by a top 10 ranking in this field from 200+ out of the fairway. Once he finds himself on Bermuda greens, he is gaining strokes with the flat stick. Although it's not essential this week, whenever he misses the green, a chip-in is possible. Let Min Woo Cook!

Cody Williams: Jake Knapp +3000 (DraftKings)

We’ll take a little bit of a flier here, though I heavily considered Adam Scott (+4200) in this spot. Regardless, Knapp fits the profile at a long golf course that rewards ball-striking, especially with how he’s hitting his iron. He’s gained 4.4 or more strokes in two of the last three starts, and has found success at longer golf courses that fit a similar mold to Doral. Though the possible wrist injury has me a little scared, I’ll still just simply back the talent and course fit.

Brian Giuffra: Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (FanDuel)

Matsuyama’s approach game spiked at the Valero and then Augusta. He hasn’t played since, so it’s hard to tell if he’ll still be in the same top form. But when handicapping this event, I looked for great ball strikers who are accurate on long approach shots. Deki is second on Tour in approaches from 200+ yards and 14th in SG: APP. He’s also 44th in Tour in SG: Putting, which plays a big role with all the lag putting that will happen this week. Let’s also remember he has a history of winning signature events.

Longshot

Brian Kirschner: Ryan Fox +12500 (DraftKings)

Ryan Fox has had a very solid year so far for a golfer who is over 100/1 this week. He has finished T24 or better in five of his seven starts on the PGA Tour this year. His two MCs were when he was dealing with Kidney Stones, so I am willing to give him a pass for that. Fox is an elite driver who is coming off gaining in every major category at Heritage.

Brad Thomas: JJ Spaun +6000 (FanDuel)

I’m not typically a JJ Spaun backer, but this feels like a really good spot to get value on him. He’s sitting at 60-1, and one thing you know about Spaun is he’s going to gain strokes on approach. He’s especially strong with his long irons, which should play well at a course that’s set up long and difficult. The issue, as always, is the putter. You can’t lose two or three strokes on the greens and expect to win. But in the weeks where he’s even average with the flat stick, he’s usually right there in contention. At this price, I like the value we’re getting this week.

Byron Lindeque: Gary Woodland +6100 w/o Scottie (DraftKings)

I am thinking of this course as a blend of Bayhill (API) and Memorial Park (Houston Open), with Gary having just won the latter. His combination of distance off the tee and solid putting makes him an ideal fit for this course. We have seen the top of the LIV leaderboards have multiple golfers losing strokes around the greens, which Gary does routinely. At his current price with his current form, there is a lot to like.

Cody Williams: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +9800 (DraftKings)

When he was really popping up on leaderboards, we were seeing Yellamaraju hit it long off the tee and take advantage with his approach play. That should play exceptionally well at Doral, especially considering he’s still gained on approach in each of his last six measured events. It’s definitely a longshot, but the fit for the best form of Yellamaraju makes a ton of sense.

Brian Giuffra: Daniel Berger +10000 (FanDuel)

You wanna get nuts? Let’s get nuts! Berger was 2nd at API and probably should have won it. He spiked on approach at RBC Heritage, while the rest of his game let him down. He’s a Florida boy with the length to get it done at the Blue Monster. The last time we saw his approach game start to spike, he finished runner-up at Bay Hill the next week. Maybe he finished the job this week.

First-Round Leader

Brian Kirschner: Viktor Hovland +3300 (FanDuel)

Hovland has been a bit all over the place recently. He was one off the lead going into the weekend at RBC and finished T42. He had the low round on Sunday at the Masters but only finished T18. I think that his game is showing that it can spike for one round. This week is the perfect time for it to happen.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +3400 (FanDuel)

Jake Knapp has been up and down since withdrawing from the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS and finished T74 at the RBC Heritage. In between, though, he played really well with a T6 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and a strong showing at the Masters. Now he gets a course that should fit him really well. His length is going to be a weapon, and he’s a fast starter, which makes me love the first-round leader market for Knapp.

Byron Lindeque: Jhonattan Vegas +12500 (BetRivers)

Any time the tour plays at a long golf course, Vegas is part of the conversation. While Jhonattan is losing half a stroke or more in rounds 2, 3 and 4, he loses only -0.06 strokes in R1, which, relative to his other splits, is a positive outlier. Vegas has two top 20s this year at the API and Houston Open, with both venues rewarding strong drivers of the ball who can hit their mid/long irons well. The first round leader of last year’s PGA Championship (another big boy golf course) is priced at the bottom of the FRL odds board and we are going to make the books pay. *I also bet him with an eachway to get 1/5th the odds (25-1) to finish top 6 after R1.

Cody Williams: Cameron Young +2050 (DraftKings)

I also love Cameron Young outright this week, but I’ll take him for FRL and not look back. He leads this field in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds while also sitting at eighth in SG: Approach over that same span. With his distance off the tee and that level of approach play, not to mention the fact that he’s been living at the top of leaderboards on long golf courses lately, I think Young is going to be a factor and be so right away.

Brian Giuffra: Min Woo Lee +3300 (DraftKings)

I wanted a piece of Min Woo this week, but felt his game has been too volatile to back him in the outright market. The FRL market seemed much more inviting at this price. He’s T3 on tour in Round 1 scoring average (67.0), and that includes a 78 he fired at Augusta. He shot 62 in the first round earlier this year at the AmEx and has five opening rounds in the 60s in nine events this year.

Prop Bet

Brian Kirschner: Russell Henely Top 20 -115 (DraftKings)

Back-to-back in this market! We're heating up! I like Russ a lot this week. He is a very consistent player who isn’t going to make a lot of mistakes. He is a winner at a long, difficult Bermuda course, Bay Hil,l and should be well suited for this place. Top 20 should be easy for Russ to finish this week

Brad Thomas: Gary Woodland Top 20 incl. ties +166 (DraftKings)

Whoa! Gary Woodland has been fired out of a cannon. It was tough sledding to start the season until, boom, a win at the Houston Open. He was hemorrhaging strokes on approach until Valspar. Since then, he’s won and gained with his irons in almost every event. I love his length and love that he’s played here multiple times. This price is wild.

Byron Lindeque: Cameron Young Top 10 +125 incl. ties (DraftKings)

Young enters the week with four top 10s in his last five starts and finishes inside the top 10 at a 55% clip over the last 12 months. He gains +1.7 strokes when conditions are playing over par (#4 in this field). He leads the field in SG OTT and gains the 10th most strokes out of the rough from 150+. I have him #2 in the model and checks five of six key boxes this week (the most of anyone in the field), with the only box not checking a Top 10 ranking being Bermuda putting (#17), which is still top 1/4 of this field.

Cody Williams: Cameron Young Top 5 incl. ties +225 (BetMGM)

Copy and paste what I said about Young and know that, even if he doesn’t end up holding a trophy, I see a lot of paths wherein he finishes near the top of the leaderboard. I’ll take him to do exactly that.

Brian Giuffra: Jacob Bridgeman Top 20 incl. Ties +112 (DraftKings)

I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Bridgeman wins his second signature event of the season this week. I’m also concerned about betting him outright after taking a few weeks off. I prefer my mules to be playing! Still, Bridgeman won the Genesis, was T5 at Players and Top 20 in every other signature event this year outside RBC. He hits the ball long and straight, is 20th in SG: App and is first in SG: Putting. He hit a rough patch at Augusta and RBC Heritage, failing to crack the Top 30 in each. I’m going to back him at plus-money in this market with another outright pick possibly coming in a few weeks (that’s called foreshadowing).

Winning Score

Brian Kirschner: -13
Brad Thomas: -11
Byron Lindeque: -15
Cody Williams: -14
Brian Giuffra: -12

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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