Caleb Williams Skyrockets in Latest NFL MVP Odds After Bears' Win vs. Seahawks on Monday Night

The Caleb Williams MVP train took a detour after his injury in Week 2 of the 2026 season, but it’s fully back on track after yet another impressive showing in primetime to beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8.

Williams has shot all the way up to +500 to win the league’s MVP award this season, behind only Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow with the league nearing the halfway mark of the regular season.

The Bears (6-2) have won all four games that Williams has started and finished this season, and the former No. 1 overall pick has certainly passed the eye test as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Ben Johnson’s offense.

The question becomes: Can he win MVP despite missing three games?

Before we examine that, let’s take a look at where things stand in the odds after Week 8.

NFL MVP Odds for 2026 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Allen: +165
Brock Purdy: +450
Joe Burrow: +475
Caleb Williams: +500
Trevor Lawrence: +950
Drake Maye: +1500
Patrick Mahomes: +1700
Jordan Love: +2500
Jared Goff: +3000

Williams’ MVP case is an interesting one.

There’s no doubt that the Bears’ quarterback has been one of the best players in football when he’s been on the field, but missing three games has hurt his season-long numbers when comparing him to Allen, Burrow, Purdy and others. After all, Williams has two rushing scores and six passing scores in five games (he left Week 2 early with a hamstring injury), and the Bears ran for a bunch of scores again in Week 8 to limit Williams’ counting stats.

Last week, the SI Betting team spoke to several oddsmakers about Williams’ MVP chances, and there were some questions about what his season-long numbers will look like compared to Allen and some of the other leading candidates.

“He's been our second most popular selection since he came back, only trailing Josh Allen,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated last week. “So, he has been hugely popular, and that could be for a variety of reasons, including just him playing for the Chicago Bears, along with their own team success.

“But for a player like him, his resume becomes pretty tough to get near the top, and the reason being is that as good as he may play in 14 games, Josh Allen will likely have a stronger resume in 17 – or whoever the healthy quarterback ends up being that is able to play 17 on a good team that has good numbers.

“So, in order for him to really have a chance at the award, he'd need to have an outstanding 14-game stretch. And he can't really afford to miss another game, so that's also something that is priced in at the minute. So while what he's doing is likely MVP-worthy or near that echelon, it's the fact that he needs to be pretty much perfect.”

Still, the Bears have been a different offense with Williams on the field. They’ve scored over 30 points in every game he’s completed this season, including 34 against a Seattle defense that entered Week 8 at No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

"Williams’ missed games impact the odds because his raw counting stats at the end of the year will matter to a lot of voters,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated last week. “He's been popular since the offseason, but he’s moving up due to the Bears looking better and more likely to be the No. 1 seed."

It seems that Chicago’s play for the No. 1 seed could be the case for Williams in this market. The Bears are right back in the mix to win the NFC North after Minnesota’s loss in Week 8, and they’re right behind San Francisco in the conference. Wins over Seattle and New England in primetime seem to have restored Williams’ standing in the MVP race after he was in the No. 2 spot prior to his injury.

“We definitely are seeing solid play on Williams,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated last week. “But we also saw a substantial amount of play on him prior to the season starting, and so the liability is certainly building. The Bears' offense has returned to full strength, so that's giving him a shot to win. And then we're pricing him as a true contender now, at 17/1. Remember, he was the second favorite before the injury, so he was right in the mix. And now that everything's back to normal, he's certainly in that mix again.”

Any bet on Williams to win the MVP carries risk because of his missed games, but the betting market is showing that he’s now one of the five-best candidates for the award. The Bears have another primetime game in Week 9 – against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – where Williams could further his case.

Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the league in EPA/Play on defense after a dominant showing against Atlanta in Week 8, and if Wiliams dices up that defense, he’s going to continue to rise in this market.

In five games, Williams has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,267 yards, six scores and one pick while adding 26 carries for 92 yards and two scores on the ground. He hasn’t used his legs as much since returning from his hamstring injury, which could limit his counting stats when it comes to the MVP race.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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