Chargers vs. Chiefs Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Can Kansas City Rout an AFC West Foe?)

Fresh off of a bye week, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the most disappointing team in the NFL in Week 6 – the Los Angeles Chargers.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers have yet to win a game this season, going from a preseason darling to one of the worst teams in the NFL. Not only are the Chargers winless, but they have yet to cover the spread and rank in the bottom half of the league in almost every key metric. So, this isn’t a case of a tough schedule messing up L.A.’s playoff chances.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are undefeated and appear to be back in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after a six-win 2025 campaign.

Kenneth Walker III has totally transformed a Kansas City offense that ranks in the top-10 in the league in EPA/Play, yards per play and success rate in 2026.

Oddsmakers have set Mahomes and Co. as massive favorites at home in this AFC West clash, but can they cover?

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final score of every NFL game – a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread, moneyline and total bets. Plus, there’s a chance that we’ll hit an exact score in the process!

This AFC West matchup has major implications for the Chiefs as they eye the No. 1 seed in the conference, especially since they already had their bye. Let’s dive right into the odds and my score prediction for Sunday’s game.

Chargers vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Chargers +8.5 (-115)
Chiefs -8.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Chargers: +380
Chiefs: -500

Total

42.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The total in this matchup has dropped a point since open, but the Chiefs remain 8.5-point favorites at home against a Chargers team that has yet to get a win in 2026. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 against the spread after failing to cover against Denver in Week 5.

Chargers vs. Chiefs Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan has taken on the challenge of betting on every NFL game this season in his Road to 272 column. Earlier this week, he explained why he’s taking the OVER in this matchup:

Don't look now, but the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs once again have one of the best offenses in football. They lead the league in yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per snap, and they also rank fourth in EPA per play and fifth in offensive success rate. Led by Offensive Player of the Year favorite Kenneth Walker, they're a dangerous offense to face, and any game they're involved in shouldn't have a total in the low 40s.

Unfortunately, the Chargers' offense is bad, but I continue to believe that Mike McDaniel's system is going to eventually click, and they're going to have some strong offensive outputs sooner rather than later. Now that they face an average Chiefs defense facing an 0-6 record to start the season, now could be the time that their offense comes out firing.

While I don’t mind the OVER play, I think this is going to be a lopsided game, especially since Los Angeles is banged up across the board on offense. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris have all been hurt in 2026, and the Chargers have tackle Rashawn Slater on injured reserve.

That’s led to a terrible offense, as L.A. ranks 32nd in the NFL in EPA/Play and 28th in success rate through five weeks.

As MacMillan mentioned, this Chiefs offense has been one of the best in the league, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and Co. to take care of business out of a bye week against a Chargers team that has a very slim chance of turning this season around. L.A. has yet to cover the spread in a game this season, and bettors should expect that to change on Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Chargers 16

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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