Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Semifinals

The top four seeds in the 2026 U.S. Open have all reached the semifinals, and No. 4 seed Coco Gauff will take on No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina on Thursday.

Gauff survived a bit of a scare on Wednesday, dropping her first set against No. 5 seed Mirra Andreeva before winning the next two sets, including a dominant third set where she won 6-2.

Now, Gauff is just one win away from her second appearance in a U.S. Open final – her first was in her win back in 2023.

Rybakina is a tough matchup for Gauff, and she already beat the American earlier this summer in the National Bank Open. Rybakina won the Australian Open to start her year in Grand Slam action, and she has lost just one set in this tournament, knocking off Naomi Osaka and Zheng Qinwen in the last two rounds.

Oddsmakers have set Gauff as the favorite in this match, which will be the third time that the two have met in their careers.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semifinals and my prediction for Thursday’s showdown.

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Coco Gauff: -146
Elena Rybakina: +119

Total

22.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 10
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina History and U.S. Open Performance

This semifinal match will be just the third time that Gauff and Rybakina have faced off.

Their first meeting was back in 2022, where Gauff won in three sets 6-4, 6-7, 7-6. This year, they faced off in the National Bank Open semifinals with Rybakina winning 5-7, 6-2, 6-2.

Coco Gauff

Gauff fell behind early in the quarterfinals against Andreeva, but she rallied to win the second set in a tiebreak before dominating the third set (6-2) to advance. Gauff may not be to get away with a slow start against Rybakina, who has lost just one set all tournament.

A one-time U.S. Open winner, Gauff is making her second semifinal appearance at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

The 22-year-old does not have a Grand Slam win in 2026, but she made the quarterfinals in the Australian Open and the semifinals at Wimbledon. She dominated American Iva Jovic in Round 4, and Gauff has dropped just one set herself in this tournament.

Elena Rybakina

Prior to this year, Rybakina hadn’t made a deep run in the U.S. Open, with her best finish being a fourth-round exit in 2025.

However, the No. 2 seed has turned in back-to-back impressive wins, downing No. 13-seeded Naomi Osaka in Round 4 and holding off Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals despite losing the first set.

Rybakina won a Grand Slam (the Australian Open) already this year and has an elite record on hard courts. Her win over Qinwen improved her record to 34-7 on hard courts in 2026.

The No. 2-ranked player in the tournament did not make the fourth round at the French Open or Wimbledon, but she has a chance to reach a second final in 2026. Rybakina has won four of her five matches in straight sets in this tournament.

Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Pick

Earlier this year, Gauff and Rybakina played 28 games in the National Bank Open with Rybakina coming out on top.

I’ve been betting on Gauff all tournament long, and don’t want to change my tune and go against her, but this is a tough matchup for the American if she falls behind early like she did in the quarterfinals.

However, Gauff showed that she’s going to battle, playing 29 games en route to a three-set win.

Since we have two high seeds facing off, I think there’s a good chance that we see a third set on Thursday, which would really aid any OVER bet when it comes to total games.

In their two previous meetings, Gauff and Rybakina have gone the distance, playing 36 and 28 games.

I’ll root for a longer match on Thursday, as no matter who wins on the women’s side, it will set up an epic final on Saturday.

Pick: OVER 22.5 Games (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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