College Football Upset Picks for Week 10 (Bet Kentucky to Upset Tennessee)

We managed to hit one upset pick in my Week 9 edition of my upset picks article, correctly predicting Clemson to beat Florida State. Northwestern also looked like they were on their way to getting the win, but Oregon stormed past them late in the second half.

We move on to Week 10 action, and I'm getting a bit more aggressive with my underdog bets. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 10 Upset Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Old Dominion +225 vs. Coastal Carolina
Texas A&M +225 vs. South Carolina
Kentucky +195 vs. Tennessee

Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina Best Bet

Both of these teams are terrible, which means the odds for this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em than what they're currently set at. For example, they're 115th and 116th in net adjusted EPA per play, and 124th and 109th in net success rate.

The best unit in this game is the Old Dominion defense, ranking 15th in the country in defensive success rate. The only thing that has held this team back is their horrible offense, but with how bad the Coastal Carolina defense is, ranking 102nd in defensive success rate, even this Monarchs offense should be able to move the ball.

With Old Dominion's defense being the only good unit in this game, I'll back them to win as a +225 underdog.

Pick: Old Dominion +225

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Best Bet

This is a fantastic sell-high spot on South Carolina after winning three straight games, and a perfect buy-low spot on Texas A&M after losing two of its last three. The fact of the matter is that little separates these two teams. Texas A&M ranks 37th in adjusted net EPA per play and 40th in net success rate, while South Carolina ranks 26th and 67th in those two metrics.

The Aggies' defense and their ability to stop the run are going to be what keeps them in this game. They're worth a bet at +225.

Pick: Texas A&M +225

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Best Bet

Tennessee's lack of a passing game is going to haunt them sooner rather than later. They're 121st in EPA per pass and 118th in pass success rate, which means if they can't run the ball against whatever defense they're facing, they have no other weapon to turn to.

Meanwhile, Kentucky is a top-20 rushing attack in the nation, which is going to be a huge advantage against a Tennessee defense that's 50th in opponent rush EPA. The Wildcats are a great underdog bet in this spot.

Pick: Kentucky +195

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