College Football Upset Picks for Week 9 (Bet Arizona to Hand Texas Tech Second Straight Loss)

We had a fantastic time betting on underdogs to win outright in Week 8 of the college football season. We cashed two of three games in my upset picks article, correctly predicting both Minnesota to beat Iowa and UCF to beat BYU.

Let's try to keep the momentum going in Week 9. It's time to dive into three of my favorite upset picks for the Week 9 slate.

Remember to find the best odds possible at the top college football betting sites.

College Football Week 9 Upset Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Arizona +140 vs. Texas Tech
Northwestern +145 vs. Oregon
Clemson +180 vs. Florida State

Arizona vs. Texas Tech Best Bet

Texas Tech showed its true colors against Cincinnati last week. The Red Raiders simply aren't as good a team as the betting market says they are. Arizona ranks right next to them in adjusted net EPA per play, at 27th compared to 25th, but the Wildcats outrank them significantly in net success rate, ranking 14th in the country compared to Texas Tech at 32nd.

Texas Tech's offense is average at best, ranking outside the top 50 in almost every metric. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have one of the best passing attacks in the country, ranking fourth in EPA per pass. The wrong team is favored in this game.

Pick: Arizona +140

Northwestern vs. Oregon Best Bet

Northwestern continues to be underrated, and the odds for this game should be much closer than they are. The one weakness the Wildcats have is that teams have been able to run the ball on them effectively. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they're one of the worst running offenses in the country, ranking 117th in EPA per rush and 114th in rush success rate. I'm all in on the Wildcats to win this game.

Pick: Northwestern +145

Clemson vs. Florida State Best Bet

There isn't enough to separate these two teams to justify a 6-point spread. In fact, the numbers are close enough that I think a moneyline bet on the Tigers is worth a look. Clemson enters the game ranking 51st in net adjusted EPA per play and 91st in net success rate. By comparison, Florida State ranks 52nd and 106th in those two metrics.

The Clemson defense has also been extremely good this season, including ranking eighth in college football in opponent EPA per play.

Clemson is live to pull off the upset as road underdogs.

Pick: Clemson +180

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