Cowboys vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 17 (Expect High-Scoring Affair)

The Cowboys are road favorites on Christmas.

The Dallas Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott are favored on Christmas. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Christmas Day in the NFL opens up with an NFC East clash between the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, although it won’t feature Jayden Daniels (elbow) who is done for the season. 

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16, but oddsmakers still have them favored to win this matchup by a pretty wide margin. Dallas blew out Washington in Dallas earlier this season, but the Cowboys have lost multiple games in a row since their huge upset win over Kansas City on Thanksgiving.

The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but they are also one of the worst defenses, ranking dead last in EPA/Play and in the bottom three in several other key statistics.

Washington is coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, and this has been a lost season for a veteran team that has dealt with a ton of injuries.

Can the Commanders hang around at home against a division rival? 

All season long, the SI Betting team has been predicting the final score of games as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets. Christmas Day is no different, so let’s take a look at how to bet on the first game of this three-game Thursday slate. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Cowboys -6.5 (-110)
• Commanders +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Cowboys: -285
• Commanders: +230

Total

• 50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

After opening as 5.5-point road favorites, the Cowboys have moved to 6.5-point favorites with Jayden Daniels out for this game and the rest of the 2025 season. 

Still, it’s surprising to see this movement, as Daniels had already been ruled out and neither of the teams have anything to play for at this point in the season. Washington lost badly to Dallas in the first meeting between these teams, but the Cowboys have covered in just two games as a favorite so far in 2025. 

Cowboys vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, where he bets on every game, every week: 

It's hard to evaluate both teams with nothing to play for in this game, but we do know that this is a matchup between arguably the two worst defenses in the NFL. They rank 30th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play, 27th and 30th in opponent success rate, as well as 29th and 31st in opponent yards per play. They are also both in the bottom seven in scoring defense, allowing a combined 56.9 points per game.

Let's not overthink the first game on Christmas. Sit back, bet the OVER, and root for points.

The last time these teams played, they combined for 66 points, and I am also betting on another high-scoring game in this matchup. 

However, I can’t trust the Cowboys to cover – they’re just 2-5 against the spread when favored this season. Still, I do believe in their offense to put up a ton of points. 

Since Dallas has been one of the worst defenses in the league (30th in yards per play, 31st in points allowed, 32nd in EPA/Play), I’ll bet on Washington to hang around in this meaningless divisional battle. 

Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Commanders 26

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.