Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

Dallas is a road underdog in a Week 4 clash with Houston.

The Dallas Cowboys and quarterback Dak Prescott are underdogs in Week 4. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Houston Texans are facing a potential must-win matchup in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, as they’ll host the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott.

Houston is off to an 0-3 start, dropping games against Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, including two games where it was favored. C.J. Stroud and Co. have struggled to move the ball without Nico Collins, and the Houston running game is once again struggling, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. 

Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off a heart-breaking loss in the final seconds against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, and it’s just 1-2 this season. The Cowboys had high hopes to make the playoffs in the NFC, but a third loss in four games would make that goal a lot tougher with the NFC West, and NFC North looking like divisions that will have multiple playoff teams. 

Dallas is an underdog on the road in this matchup, a spot the Cowboys covered in (as a dog) in Week 3. Prescott and Co. have the No. 4 offense in EPA/Play and the No. 7 success rate on that side of the ball through three weeks. The issue is that the defense remains one of the worst in the NFL, ranking dead last in EPA/Play and success rate while allowing 6.0 yards per play.

Does that open the door for Stroud and this Houston offense to get on track after an ugly game in Week 3 against Indy? 

Oddsmakers seem to think so with Houston set as the favorite at home.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, trends, injury updates and my prediction for this battle between two Texas teams on Sunday. 

Cowboys vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Cowboys +2.5 (-102)
• Texans -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Cowboys: +120
• Texans: -142

Total

• 47.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Cowboys vs. Texans How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Reliant Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Cowboys record: 1-2
• Texans record: 0-3

Cowboys vs. Texans Injury Reports

Cowboys Injury Report

• Jalen Thompson – questionable
• Cobie Durant – questionable
• Malik Hooker – questionable
• DeMarvion Overshown – questionable
• PJ Locke – questionable

Texans Injury Report

• Nico Collins – questionable
• Jadeveon Clowney – questionable
• Mario Edwards Jr. – questionable
• Ed Engram – questionable
• Jacob Hummel – questionable
• M.J. Stewart – questionable

Cowboys vs. Texans Betting Trends

• The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• Houston is 0-3 against the spread this season.
• The Texans are 0-1 against the spread when favored at home. 
• The Cowboys are 0-1 against the spread on the road in 2026. 
• The OVER is 3-0 in the Cowboys’ games in the 2026 season.
• The UNDER is 2-1 in the Texans’ games this season. 

Cowboys vs. Texans Key Player to Watch

Dak Prescott, Quarterback, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys’ defense continues to let them down, even though Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level in the 2026 season.

The Dallas signal-caller has thrown for 730 yards, seven scores and one pick while completing 69.5 percent of his passes this season. He’s also added 10 carries for 59 yards. Dallas should be able to put up points against a Houston team that is just 19th in EPA/Play on defense in 2026 and 18th in yards per play allowed (5.4). 

Prescott has thrown for over 275 yards in back-to-back games, and he’s in the MVP conversation (+1400) early on this season. A win over Houston would go a long way to his MVP case and the Cowboys’ playoff chances in 2026. 

Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

No team in NFL history has made the playoffs after going 0-3 in back-to-back seasons, so Houston is in an unprecedented spot after going 0-3 and earning the No. 5 seed in the AFC in 2025. 

The Texans have been favored in two games this season, and they’ve yet to cover in every matchup, losing by five to Buffalo as an underdog in Week 1. Losing to the Bills was understandable, but the Texans have followed that up with two poor offensive showings against Cincy and Indianapolis. 

The Dallas defense is terrible – and makes this team extremely tough to bet on – in the 2026 season, but does Houston have the offense to make them pay? The Texans are in the bottom half of the league in EPA/Play (21st) and are averaging just 4.8 yards per play (the ninth-fewest in the NFL). 

If Nico Collins (hamstring) sits for the third game in a row, Houston lacks any firepower on the outside, and it really bit the team against Indy in Week 3. 

We know that Dallas is going to be able to put up points, and the Texans defense is just 19th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season. It was torched by Josh Allen in Week 1, and I think Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens make for a tough matchup in Week 4. 

I’ll gladly take the points with Dallas, as I can’t understand why this Houston team remains this highly rated despite some shaky showings in the last two weeks. 

Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.