Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 24

The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are both in the middle of an exciting NL wild card race, though the Cubbies are in a much better spot to make the postseason entering Monday’s series opener.

The Cubs and NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong have a six-game cushion over Arizona (the No. 4 team in the NL wild card race) and a two-game cushion over the Philadelphia Phillies for the top wild card spot.

So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Cubs are road favorites in Monday’s matchup, especially since Arizona has lost some ground, going 5-5 in its last 10 games. That has allowed the San Diego Padres to sneak ahead of the D-Backs in the NL West and the wild card standings.

On Monday, Arizona will turn to veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly (5.37 ERA) against Chicago’s Kevin Gausman (4.58 ERA), who was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline. Gausman has a 6.19 ERA in three starts with the Cubs, but the team has won two of those games.

Can they come through on Monday and extend their lead over Arizona in this wild card race?

I’m eyeing a player prop and a side for this National League showdown on Aug. 24.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Cubs -1.5 (+118)
Diamondbacks +1.5 (-142)

Moneyline

Cubs: -144
Diamondbacks: +119

Total

9 (Over -112/Under -108)

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

Chicago: Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.58 ERA)
Arizona: Merrill Kelly (8-11, 5.37 ERA)

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 24
Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Field
How to Watch (TV): Marquee Sports Network, DBACKS.TV
Cubs record: 75-56
Diamondbacks record: 69-62

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

Pete Crow-Armstong to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Can PCA keep his MVP season going? I shared in today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run picks at SI Betting – why the star outfielder is a great bet to continue his recent power surge against Arizona:

Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP this season, and for good reason. He has the best WAR in MLB (8.1) and has been on a crazy power surge as of late.

PCA has five home runs over the last week (six games) and 10 over the last 28 days (26 games) to lead the Cubs. He has an OPS north of 1.500 in the last week and has pushed his season-long OPS to .938.

Now, Crow-Armstrong takes on veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has given up 26 home runs in 23 appearances this season while posting a 5.37 ERA. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has struggled against PCA in his career, allowing the Cubs star to go 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles.

So, is this the perfect spot for the NL MVP favorite to finally take Kelly deep?

I love the matchup for PCA, as he’s hitting .375 over the last week and has launched 24 of his 33 homers this season against right-handed pitching. At +340, he’s a pretty solid value for a Cubs team that is looking to lock up the top wild card spot in the NL.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

The Cubs have been able to survive a couple of shaky outings from Gausman thanks to their elite offense, which ranks No. 1 in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), OPS and runs scored this season.

That’s a major key against an Arizona team that is just 20th in wRC+ and outside of the top 10 in runs scored, OPS and batting average this season. The D-Backs have been fine offensively, but they’ve struggled in Kelly’s outings, going 9-14 when he’s on the mound.

The righty has been better as the 2026 season has gone along, but he still ranks in the first percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average against. Meanwhile, in a down year, Gausman is still in the 50th percentile in expected ERA.

The Cubs have an impressive plus-115 run differential in 2026, and they’re now eight games over .500 on the road.

Given the pitching matchup, I think this is a pretty solid price to get the Cubs at as they look to extend their lead atop the NL wild card standings.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-144 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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