Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for Illinois-UConn and Michigan-Arizona)

The Final Four is officially here and we're in for a fun couple of games.

On one side of the bracket, we have the UConn Huskies, who are trying to win their third National Championship in three years, taking on the Illinois Fighting Illini, who are trying to win their first National Championship in school history.

On the other side of the bracket, the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines are playing in a game between two 1-seeds who many believe are the top two teams in the nation.

Let's dive into my best bet on a side and a player prop for both games.

Best College Basketball Bets Today

UConn +115 vs. Illinois via Caesars
Alex Karaban OVER 12.5 Points (-114) via FanDuel
Arizona +105 vs. Michigan via Caesars
Yaxel Lendeborg UNDER 16.5 Points (-106) via FanDuel

Illinois vs. UConn Prediction

There's no denying that Illinois can match any other team in the country offensively, but its defense is going to cost it in this game. The Fighting Illini rank just 69th in the country in defensive efficiency. By comparison, the Huskies are 14th in that metric, giving them a huge defensive advantage in this Final Four matchup.

I also have a lot more faith in a team that's led by Dan Hurley, a coach who has delivered two National Championships over the past three seasons and is now back in the Final Four, fresh off a win against the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

Let's also not forget that UConn has already dominated Illinois once this season, beating them by a score of 74-61 back on November 28.

There's enough there for me to back the Huskies to win as slight underdogs.

Pick: UConn +115

Illinois vs. UConn Prop Bet

Alex Caraban was red-hot in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 17+ points in the first three games, but then had a down performance against Duke in the Elite Eight, scoring just five points while shooting 20% from the field. That can be forgiven considering Duke led the country in defensive efficiency. Now, the Huskies get to face an Illinois team that's just 69th in defensive efficiency.

I'm going to back Karaban to have a bounce-back performance tonight.

Pick: Alex Karaban OVER 12.5 Points (-114)

Michigan vs. Arizona Prediction

In a game between the two best teams in college basketball, with a spot in the National Championship on the line, one single weakness shown by either side could end up being the difference. With that in mind, it's important to take a look at the turnover rate for the Michigan Wolverines. Not only do they rank in the bottom half of all teams in turnovers per possession, but they also rank near the bottom in forcing turnovers themselves, leading to them averaging -0.6 extra scoring chances per game

Compare that to the Arizona Wildcats, who do a much better job of creating extra scoring chances, averaging +3.4 per game, which is good for 30th in the country.

In a matchup that's largely splitting hairs, evidenced by the minuscule spread, I'm going to back the side that could end up with a few extra possessions, which could make all the difference when it comes to locking up a berth in the NCAA Tournament final.

Pick: Arizona +105

Michigan vs. Arizona Prop Bet

Michigan's best chance of winning this game is by attacking the perimeter of the Arizona defense. The Wildcats have one of the best interior defenses in the country, ranking second in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams to shooting just 44.1% from two-point range. That means Arizona is well-equipped to defend Michigan's forward, Yaxel Lendeborg. That could lead to Michigan leaning on its guards instead, keeping Lendeborg below his set points total of 16.5.

Pick: Yaxel Lendeborg UNDER 16.5 Points (-106)

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