Diamondbacks vs. Mets Betting Prediction: Why Odds Favor New York With Freddy Peralta on Mound

After a slow start to the 2026 season, the New York Mets have won three games in a row heading into their series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, April 7.

Mets ace Freddy Peralta (4.35 ERA) will make his third start of the season against former All-Star Zac Gallen, who is looking to rebound after a down year in 2025.

New York has dealt with the injury bug early on this season, losing star outfielder Juan Soto to a calf injury on Friday. Soto was placed on the injured list, knocking him out for the entire series with the D-Backs.

Oddsmakers have set the Mets as clear favorites at home in this game, even though Peralta wasn’t incredibly sharp in his first outing of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, should bettors target New York in this series opener?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, the pitching matchup, my favorite prop bet and a more for Tuesday’s contest.

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-168)
Mets -1.5 (+139)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: +135
Mets: -163

Total

7 (Over -115/Under -105)

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60 ERA)
New York: Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.35 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 7
Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY/DBacks.TV
Diamondbacks record: 5-5
Mets record: 6-3

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Freddy Peralta 6+ Strikeouts (-138)

Even though he’s thrown just 10.1 innings through two starts this season, Freddy Peralta has seven strikeouts in each of those games.

On Tuesday, the Mets ace has a tough matchup against an Arizona team that leads MLB in strikeouts per game (6.9) so far in the 2026 season. Still, I think Peralta is worth a look in this market with his prop down at 5.5.

Statcast ranks Peralta in the 84th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 81st percentile in whiff percentage in the 2026 season. Not only that, but he struck out 204 batters in 176.2 innings last season and averages over 11 K’s per nine innings in his career.

I’ll buy Peralta at a discounted price, even though the D-Backs have been a tough team to strike out this season.

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Both of these pitchers have been All-Stars in their careers, and Peralta didn’t have a great first outing in 2026.

So, why are the Mets favored in this matchup?

Well, New York is ninth in MLB in OPS so far this season (Arizona is 23rd), and it turned things around in a weekend series with the lowly San Francisco Giants.

Peralta’s first outing was shaky, but he then followed it up with 5.1 innings of three-hit, one-run ball against St. Louis.

The Mets ace has a sub-4.00 ERA in six straight seasons, including a 2.70 ERA in 33 starts in 2025.

Gallen, on the other hand, has struggled since finishing third in the Cy Young voting in 2023. The righty has a 4.29 ERA in 63 starts since then, including a down 2025 season where he posted a 4.83 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.

Since the New York offense has been better than Arizona’s to start the season, I feel comfortable laying this price with Peralta on the mound.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-163 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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