Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Sept. 27

The Arizona Diamondbacks are still alive in the NL wild card race, as a win on Sunday could lead to them getting into the playoffs.

Arizona is one game back of the Philadelphia Phillies, who have lost four games in a row, and it holds the tiebreaker over Philly this season. So, a D-Backs win and a Phillies loss to Tampa Bay would move Arizona into the final wild card spot and set up a date with the Atlanta Braves in the playoffs.

Oddsmakers have set the D-Backs as road favorites on Sunday against the San Diego Padres, who have already clinched the top spot in the NL wild card with a strong finish to the regular season.

The Padres may want to play spoiler to their division rivals, but they are also trying to set themselves up for Game 1 against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.

Randy Vasquez (4.01 ERA) will get the start for San Diego against Arizona’s Michael Soroka (3.31 ERA). Arizona is 11-9 in Soroka’s starts this season, and he has a 2.81 ERA in three appearances (two starts) this month. He tossed seven innings of two-hit, two-run ball in a win over Colorado his last time out.

Can he help Arizona keep its playoff hopes alive?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Sunday’s regular-season finale.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Diamondbacks -1.5 (+114)
Padres +1.5 (-137)

Moneyline

Diamondbacks: -148
Padres: +123

Total

8 (Over -104/Under -115)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

Arizona: Michael Soroka (9-5, 3.31 ERA)
San Diego: Randy Vasquez (10-6, 4.01 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 3:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Petco Park
How to Watch (TV): DBACKS.TV/Padres.TV
Diamondbacks record: 86-75
Padres record: 90-71

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

Michael Soroka UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-149)

This season, Soroka has walked just 27 batters, allowing one or fewer free passes in 13 of his 21 appearances.

He ranks in the 90th percentile in MLB in walk percentage, and I think the D-Backs will have a relatively short leash for him on Sunday, which should limit how many free passes he can allow.

San Diego is 11th in MLB in walk rate, but Soroka has hit the UNDER on this prop in all three of his outings this month. I’ll bet on him keeping the baserunners to a minimum on Sunday afternoon.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Vasquez has worked out of the bullpen quite a bit in the second half of the season, so I don’t expect him to pitch very deep into this game.

The bright side for the Padres is that he’ll be giving way to a bullpen that has a 3.50 ERA this season (fifth-best in MLB).

So, we could see a lower-scoring game, especially if Soroka continues his strong September. The D-Backs right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his 21 appearances this season, and Arizona has a respectable 4.00 bullpen ERA.

The D-Backs have hit the UNDER at the second-highest rate in MLB this season, and I expect them to have a quick hook with Soroka if he gets into trouble since their season is one the line.

After back-to-back high-scoring games to open this series, I’ll bet on a low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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